Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Can $61 Oil and $4.40 Gas Hold Amid Sanction Pressure?

Market Overview

WTI crude is consolidating below $61 per barrel as OPEC+ confirmed it will pause output hikes from January to March after a modest December increase. The move reflects caution over a potential 2025 supply surplus, even as geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.

Tighter US sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, alongside Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea refineries, have renewed concerns about disruptions in fuel exports.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices remain firm above $4.40/MMBtu, supported by winter demand expectations and fears of further infrastructure damage in Eastern Europe.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas futures are trading around $4.46, consolidating near the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. The structure signals potential exhaustion after a strong multi-week rally from $3.88. The RSI is hovering around 63, showing waning momentum as price struggles to break above $4.65, a key resistance aligning with the wedge ceiling.

The 20-EMA continues to hold above the 50-EMA, suggesting underlying bullish bias, yet a close below $4.41 could expose downside risk toward $4.19 and $4.02.

Conversely, a clean breakout above $4.65 would invalidate the bearish wedge setup, targeting $4.86 and $5.06. For now, traders should watch for volume confirmation near the wedge edges before committing to new positions.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $60.23, holding just below its descending trendline from the October highs. The price is currently trapped between resistance at $60.52–61.00 and support near $59.09, showing a tightening range. The 20-EMA is flat, while the 50-EMA above acts as dynamic resistance, keeping short-term sentiment cautious.

The RSI has rebounded to 45, hinting at mild buying momentum, though not yet strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. A clear break above $61.00 could signal a push toward $62.50–64.00, while failure to hold $59.00 may invite another decline toward $57.70.

Until a breakout occurs, oil remains in a consolidation phase with balanced risk on both sides.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $64.08, hovering just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $64.11. The price remains trapped within a descending channel, signaling consolidation after October’s rebound from the $60.07 low. The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are converging, showing indecision as traders await a breakout for direction.

The RSI sits around 47, reflecting neutral momentum after a failed attempt to push higher last week. A close above $64.50 could confirm bullish strength, paving the way toward $65.30 and $66.60. On the downside, failure to hold $62.57 may drag prices toward $61.40 or even $60.00.

Until a breakout occurs, Brent is likely to stay range-bound between $62.50–$65.30.