Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Finds Support as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Strains

Market Overview

WTI crude traded near $58.7 per barrel as energy markets absorbed a fresh wave of geopolitical tension and shifting supply signals. Diplomatic talks between major global powers were described as “useful” but produced no concrete progress, keeping markets alert to potential disruptions.

A recent attack on a commercial vessel added another layer of uncertainty, while broader regional strains continued to influence risk sentiment.

At the same time, US industry data showed a 2.5 million-barrel rise in crude inventories and higher gasoline stockpiles, tempering bullish pressure. With official inventory data due today, traders are balancing geopolitical risk with evolving supply fundamentals.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading around $4.88, holding inside a well-defined ascending channel. Price recently bounced from support at $4.82, which aligns with the 50-EMA ($4.78), keeping the short-term bias constructive. The next resistance sits at $4.98, where previous highs created a pause in momentum.

The 200-EMA ($4.60) continues to slope upward, reinforcing the broader trend. RSI near 58 shows steady buying interest without signaling exhaustion, and recent higher lows support the ongoing uptrend.

A close above $4.98 would open the way toward $5.11 and $5.25. If price slips below $4.82, downside pressure may extend toward $4.67 and channel support near $4.58.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $58.74, stabilizing after slipping below the rising channel that guided last week’s advance. Price is sitting under both the 50-EMA ($58.92) and 200-EMA ($59.15), which continue to act as overhead pressure. Immediate resistance stands at $59.17, where recent candles show repeated upper-wick rejections, signaling supply.

On the downside, support sits at $58.26, followed by $57.80 and $57.10. The RSI near 46 reflects weak momentum but shows slight firming after the recent low. If WTI reclaims $59.17, it may retest $59.90, but failure to hold $58.26 could expose a deeper move toward the previous swing base at $57.10.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading around $62.54, holding just above support at $62.18 after slipping out of its rising channel. Price remains below the 50-EMA ($62.79) and 200-EMA ($63.16), keeping the short-term bias tilted lower. Recent candles show small bodies and repeated lower-wick tests near $62.18, signaling buyers are trying to stabilize the decline.

Immediate resistance is $63.00, followed by $63.73, where multiple rejections formed last week. The RSI near 47 shows weak momentum but has flattened, hinting at early consolidation.

A break above $63.00 could trigger a recovery toward $63.73, while losing $62.18 exposes deeper downside toward $61.62 and $61.05.