Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Pauses at 5-Week High Amid Inventory Build

Market Overview

WTI crude futures held above $69 per barrel on Wednesday, maintaining a five-week high as markets weighed supply risks from escalating geopolitical tensions against surprising inventory data. Fears of potential disruptions to global oil flows have fueled bullish sentiment, especially as broader trade stability improves.

Analysts also noted relief after a major US-EU trade rift was averted, preserving fuel demand across key markets. However, the upside was capped by a larger-than-expected 1.5 million-barrel build in U.S. inventories, sharply contrasting with forecasts for a 2.5 million-barrel draw.

The balance of risk remains tilted toward volatility amid shifting diplomatic dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGU2025) is trading at $3.164, showing signs of stabilization after finding a base near $3.058. Price remains trapped below the falling trendline and both EMAs—50 at $3.181 and 100 at $3.257—highlighting continued bearish pressure.

A Fibonacci confluence zone between $3.191 (23.6%) and $3.275 (38.2%) acts as near-term resistance. To shift momentum, bulls must reclaim $3.275 and close above $3.342 (50% Fib). If rejected, downside targets include $3.080 and $3.057, followed by deeper supports at $2.973 and $2.902.

A breakout above $3.342 would open the path to $3.408 and $3.585. Until then, sellers remain in control, with lower highs and weak volume confirming the downtrend bias.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is consolidating near $69.03 after a strong rally from $65.11, which respected both the 1.414 and 50-period EMA. The price topped near $69.70, just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and is now forming a potential flag structure.

Immediate support lies at $68.93 (Fib 0.236), with stronger confluence at $68.07–$67.09 (Fib 0.5 and 0.618). A break above $69.70 could extend the bullish move toward $70.35 and $71.14.

However, a drop below $67.09 may invalidate the short-term rally, shifting focus to $65.11.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil surged past the key $70.75 resistance, breaking out of a multi-week descending triangle. Price now hovers at $71.57, just below the $72.15 resistance, as bulls pause after a near-vertical rally. The breakout was supported by rising momentum and strong closes above both the 50- and 100-period EMAs, now at $69.65 and $69.31, respectively.

The next resistance sits at $73.08, with $74.01 as an extended target. If $72.15 holds, a minor pullback to $70.75 or $69.73 may occur before continuation. Trendlines suggest a bullish structure is now firmly in place, and as long as price holds above $69.31, dips may offer long entry opportunities.