Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Drone Strikes Propel Prices; More Upside Ahead?

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Updated: Mar 14, 2024, 09:53 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil prices near four-month highs after U.S. inventory draws and Russian refinery drone attacks.
Geopolitical tensions and supply constraints from Ukrainian strikes and Russian export bans tighten markets.
OPEC's uneven compliance and global demand outlook add uncertainty to future oil price movements.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Drone Strikes Propel Prices; More Upside Ahead?

Market Overview

Oil prices experienced a modest increase in Asian trading, hovering near four-month peaks due to significant U.S. gasoline inventory draws and drone attacks on a crucial Russian fuel refinery.

These developments suggest tighter fuel supplies, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures reaching their highest since late-November after surging over 3% on Wednesday. However, concerns over sluggish Chinese demand and the prospect of persistently high interest rates have constrained further price gains, maintaining crude within the $75 to $85 barrel range.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Constraints: The Ukrainian drone strikes on a major Russian refinery, significantly disrupting its operations, underscore the heightened geopolitical risks affecting oil supply, especially amid Russia’s export ban and ongoing tensions.

This, coupled with notable draws in U.S. oil and gasoline inventories, points to an improving demand outlook in the world’s largest fuel consumer. Despite record U.S. crude production, these factors signal tightening supplies.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) stands at $1.74, marking a minor downturn of 0.06%. The technical landscape is anchored by a pivot point at $1.7856, serving as a critical determinant for future price direction. Resistance levels are delineated at $1.8433, $1.9027, and $1.9700, mapping the path for upward momentum.

Conversely, support is identified at $1.7257, followed by $1.6711 and $1.6056, which may provide a buffer against further declines.
The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are at $1.8396 and $1.9472, respectively, suggesting a bearish trend under the current pivot.

A move above $1.7856 could pivot to a bullish outlook, highlighting the importance of this threshold in defining NG’s trajectory. Therefore, the trend for NG is bearish below $1.7856, with potential for a shift if prices ascend past this pivotal level.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL is trading at $79.81, marking a modest increase of 0.37%. The pivot point is established at $79.40, serving as a key juncture for potential shifts in momentum.

Resistance levels are identified at $80.10, $80.80, and $81.65, outlining the hurdles USOIL faces on its upward trajectory. Conversely, support is found at $78.66, followed by $77.70 and $76.84, which could cushion any declines.

Technical indicators, specifically the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), are at $78.57 and $77.31, respectively, suggesting a sustained bullish trend. These averages highlight a market that is poised for further gains, provided it maintains above the pivotal $79.40 mark.

A breach below this level, however, could trigger a swift selling trend. Conclusively, the overall trend for USOIL remains bullish as long as it stays above $79.40.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UKOIL is trading at $84.17, up by 0.33% so far. The pivot at $83.92 is pivotal; breaching it could lead to significant movements. Resistance is observed at $84.94, $85.65, and $86.43, while support lies at $83.24, $82.28, and $81.06.

Technical indicators, particularly the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), recorded at $82.75 and $81.84 respectively, underscore a bullish trend. These metrics indicate a market with the momentum for further gains, provided it sustains above the crucial $83.92 benchmark.

However, a dip below $83.92 may prompt a swift selling response. Thus, UKOIL’s trajectory is bullish above $83.92, with a potential shift if it descends past this threshold.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.