Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fed Cuts, OPEC+ Output Shift Fuel Market Volatility

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures climbed to $63 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains after OPEC+ approved a modest production increase and markets weighed the risk of tighter sanctions on Russian exports.

The cartel announced it would boost crude output by 137,000 barrels per day from October, a sharp slowdown from the 555,000 bpd increases in August and September. The smaller hike underscores the group’s caution as global supply shifts toward a potential surplus.

Adding to supply concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled tougher sanctions on Russia after Moscow carried out its largest aerial strikes on Ukraine since the war began. Any new restrictions could disrupt Russian crude flows, a key pillar of global supply.

However, gains were tempered by Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut October selling prices for all crude grades to Asian buyers, reflecting softer regional demand and a more cautious outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.14, holding within an upward channel on the 4-hour chart. The price recently bounced from support at $3.08, with the 50-EMA at $3.03 offering a solid base. The 200-EMA at $3.08 is now being tested, and a sustained move above this level could open the way toward $3.19 and $3.28.

The RSI at 60 suggests growing bullish momentum but is not yet in overbought territory, leaving room for further gains. If buyers lose steam, immediate support sits at $3.08, followed by $3.01 and $2.95.

Overall, the trend remains constructive while prices stay within the rising channel, with a breakout above $3.19 likely reinforcing upside potential toward $3.38.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $63.09, showing signs of stabilization after a sharp pullback. On the 4-hour chart, prices are testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.20, with further resistance at $63.74 and $65.07.

The 50-EMA at $63.41 acts as a short-term pivot, while the 200-EMA at $64.33 serves as stronger overhead resistance. Recent candles show buyers regaining some control, pushing price above the descending channel.

The RSI at 49 suggests neutral momentum, with room for either continuation higher or renewed weakness. If crude sustains above $63.20, a move toward $64.26–$65.07 is likely. Failure to hold support at $62.53 could open the way toward $61.44, keeping the broader trend cautious.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $66.84, showing signs of recovery after recent declines. On the 4-hour chart, prices are testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $66.75, with resistance ahead at $67.14 and $67.70. A break above these levels could open the path toward $68.42 and $69.12.

The 50-EMA at $67.00 and the 200-EMA at $67.54 serve as key hurdles in the near term. The RSI at 51 signals neutral momentum, suggesting room for further upside if buyers sustain pressure.

If Brent fails to clear $67.70, support rests at $66.34 and $65.08. Overall, price action points to cautious optimism, with bulls needing a strong breakout above $67.70 to confirm a shift toward higher levels.