Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fibonacci Levels Guide Trades Amid Oversupply Fears

Market Overview

Oil prices plummeted by more than 10% in 2025, setting up the longest annual losing streak on record. Brent crude’s price trend has been downward despite increased geopolitical tensions because supply has outpaced demand.

To start the year off, major export routes and energy infrastructure got disrupted, which actually gave prices a temporary bump, but that gain didn’t last long as OPEC+ started churning out around 2.9 million more barrels a day since April.

Trade frictions and higher tariffs have also played a role in dampening the expectations for global fuel demand. Looking ahead, supply risks are being pushed to the back burner in terms of fundamentals. Forecasts call for a surplus of 2.0 to 3.84 million barrels a day next year, and this imbalance is the major hurdle to an oil and natural gas price recovery.

This supply-and-demand imbalance continues to cap both oil and natural gas price recoveries.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures prices are stuck around $3.89 right now after failing even to make a dent above the $4.10 resistance zone. On the 4-hour chart, you can see the price is still within a rising channel. The 50 EMA is at $3.85, acting as short-term support. The 200 EMA around $4.00 is still the main upside momentum cap, preventing the price from rising further.

A Fib retracement of the recent rally placed the 38.2% mark at $3.75, which aligns with the channel support. RSI is drifting down towards 50, but that’s not a reversal, just cooling down. The trade idea here is to look for a buy on a dip near $3.75 and then target $4.10. Stopping losses should be below $3.60.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $57.85 on the 4-hour chart, after bouncing back from the $55.40 swing low. The price is holding up well above a short-term rising support line and the 50 EMA at $57.60. But the 200 EMA is still the major overhead resistance at $58.50.

Support is key right now, coming in at $57.50, then $56.70. Resistance is concentrated in the $58.80 to $59.60 range. The trade idea is to look for a confirmed break above $58.90, get in with a stop below $57.50, and aim for $59.60.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading around $61.25 on the 4-hour chart after that sharp rebound from the $58.70 low. The last few candles have shown indecisive price action, with long wicks and spinning tops, which are pretty good indicators that the market is in a phase of indecision. The price is hovering around the 50 EMA at $61.20, while the 200 EMA remains a significant upside barrier at $62.30.

A Fib retracement of that prior downswing put the 38.2% mark at $62.00, which is lining up with the resistance zone, reinforcing the selling activity there.  Key support is going to be at $60.95, then $60.20. Resistance is stacked higher up at $62.25 and $63.20. The trade idea here is to look for a buy on a confirmed breakout above $62.30, with a target of $63.20 and a stop below $60.90.