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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Risks and Moody’s Downgrade Shape Outlook
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Key Points:
- WTI crude trades near $61.62 as geopolitical risks and Moody’s U.S. downgrade weigh on global energy sentiment.
- Natural gas breaks into key demand zone at $3.341; if support fails, a slide toward $3.163 or $3.076 is likely.
- Brent crude forms higher lows above $64.14, but a clean break above $65.88 is needed to confirm bullish momentum.
Market Overview
WTI crude oil futures hovered around $61.62 per barrel on Monday as markets weighed the effects of escalating geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds. A 1% weekly gain was supported by a temporary easing of U.S.–China trade frictions, with both nations—the world’s largest energy consumers—agreeing to reduce tariffs for 90 days.
However, the momentum was tempered by renewed uncertainty in nuclear negotiations and Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit, raising concerns over global growth.
The energy market remains sensitive to diplomatic developments and potential disruptions, with oil and natural gas forecasts increasingly shaped by shifting geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic risk.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural gas is under clear selling pressure, trading at $3.241 and moving sharply within a descending channel since May 13. The price has failed to reclaim the 50-EMA ($3.370), which now slopes downward and reinforces bearish momentum.
Every bounce has been capped near channel resistance, while candles remain consistently small-bodied—showing weak bullish attempts. Crucially, the price just broke into a demand zone around $3.341, previously a strong support in late April. If this zone fails to hold, we may see a leg lower toward $3.163 or even $3.076.
A break above $3.341 could trigger a short squeeze, but bulls would still need to overcome the EMA and break the channel to flip the trend. Natural gas remains in a firm downtrend. Watch $3.341—if that breaks, bearish continuation looks likely.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
WTI crude is pivoting around $62.08, with price hugging the $61.62 mark and coiling just below the 50-EMA ($61.64). Momentum has stalled after a modest rally, and we’re now watching a rising trendline from earlier this month that’s supporting a higher low structure. That diagonal line, along with horizontal support at $60.80, forms a critical floor. The candles around $62.08 suggest indecision—small-bodied, upper-wick-heavy candles hint at selling pressure near that level.
There’s no sign of strong directional bias yet, but keep an eye on this squeeze. A close above $62.90 could reignite momentum toward $63.84, while a drop below $60.80 risks breaking trendline support and sending price toward $60.06 or even $59.10.
WTI is compressing into a support-resistance squeeze. Wait for a clean break above $62.90 or below $60.80 to catch the next leg.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Brent crude is holding around $65.04, pressing just above its 50-EMA at $64.99, but momentum looks hesitant. The price has respected a rising trendline from earlier this month, forming a consistent pattern of higher lows. That trendline intersects with horizontal support near $64.14—making it a key level to watch.
The recent pullback from $65.88 formed a mild lower high, and candles are starting to shrink in body size, showing indecision and a possible shift in control.
For now, bulls need a clean break above $65.88 to reignite upside toward $66.77 and $67.60.
A close below $64.14, however, could unravel that bullish structure and target $63.46 or even $62.21. Brent crude is coiling near a key trendline. Watch $65.88 and $64.14 for the next decisive move.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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