Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Demand; Buy Now?

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Updated: Mar 21, 2024, 10:05 UTC

Key Points:

U.S. crude and gasoline stock drawdowns signal robust demand, lifting oil market optimism.
Federal Reserve's steady interest rates raise questions about future economic growth and fuel demand.
Geopolitical tensions from Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries add to global supply uncertainties.

Market Overview

The oil market experienced a resurgence as U.S. crude and gasoline stock drawdowns bolstered prices, despite the Federal Reserve’s indications of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. The latest reports revealed a surprising decline in U.S. crude inventories, dropping by 2 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a slight increase.

This reduction, coupled with a continued decrease in gasoline stockpiles, signals robust fuel demand. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady raises concerns about potential impacts on economic growth and future fuel demand.

Moreover, geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, contribute to uncertainties surrounding global petroleum supplies, further influencing oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) marked a notable rise in its March 21 trading session, climbing by 0.77% to $1.8320. This uptrend is anchored above a critical pivot point of $1.8141, suggesting a strengthening bullish momentum. Resistance levels are charted at $1.8757, $1.9118, and $1.9500, delineating the hurdles NG might encounter if it continues its ascent.

Conversely, support levels at $1.7820, $1.7539, and $1.7191 provide a cushion, mitigating potential pullbacks. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $1.8294 and $1.9145 respectively, hint at the ongoing positive sentiment.

A downturn below $1.8141, however, could signal a trend reversal, emphasizing the need for cautious optimism among traders.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

In today’s trading session, USOIL exhibited strength, marking a 0.52% increase to reach $81.77. This movement aligns with the asset’s bullish momentum, as indicated by its position above the pivot point at $81.43.

Technical analysis reveals immediate resistance levels at $82.24, $83.07, and $83.87, suggesting potential hurdles ahead. Conversely, support levels are identified at $80.84, $80.16, and $79.39, offering buffers against downward trends.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $80.71 and $78.40 respectively, further underscore the bullish outlook. Should USOIL dip below $81.43, a shift towards a bearish trend might ensue, calling for close market observation.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI brent Price Chart

UKOIL‘s trading session on March 21 saw a notable uptick, registering a 0.51% increase to $86.53, a reflection of the asset’s ongoing bullish sentiment. This movement is supported by its current stance above the pivotal $86.24 mark. Looking ahead, the oil market faces resistance at $86.96, $87.75, and $88.42, which could pose challenges to further advances. Support levels at $85.61, $85.15, and $84.57 provide a safety net against potential declines. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, positioned at $85.18 and $82.94 respectively, underscore the prevailing positive trend. A descent below $86.24 might trigger a bearish shift, necessitating vigilant market monitoring.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.