Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Prices as Uptrend Strengthens

Market Overview

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as escalating geopolitical tensions continued to influence market sentiment. Both major benchmarks gained more than 1% on Monday, with WTI nearing a two-week high, as traders assessed disruptions to Black Sea energy infrastructure and the potential for instability in key producing regions.

Although partial pipeline operations have resumed, ongoing security risks and uncertainty around future output remain central concerns. Analysts warn that refined fuel markets, particularly diesel and gasoil, could tighten further.

Meanwhile, mixed expectations for US crude and product inventories add another layer of volatility to an already sensitive supply outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas continues to strengthen within a well-defined ascending channel, with price trading near $4.95 after reclaiming the $4.87 support zone. The 50-EMA at $4.67 underpins the broader uptrend, while the 200-EMA near $4.42 remains comfortably below the market, signaling a firm bullish structure. A break above immediate resistance at $5.09 would expose the next upside target at $5.21, followed by the channel top near $5.36.

RSI is holding above 63, showing strong but not overextended momentum. A dip below $4.76 would indicate fading demand and risk a deeper pullback toward $4.64, yet the prevailing trend favors further gains as long as natural gas holds above the channel’s midline.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is holding above $59.00, supported by an ascending channel that has guided price action since late November. The 50-EMA near $58.95 continues to act as intraday support, while the 200-EMA at $59.75 caps upside momentum.

A sustained break above this dynamic resistance would open the door toward $60.46 and the next key barrier at $61.17, aligning with the upper channel boundary. RSI remains in constructive territory near 57, signaling steady bullish momentum without signs of exhaustion.

If prices slip below $58.26, the short-term bullish structure weakens and the focus shifts back to $57.38. For now, the trend favors gradual upside as long as WTI holds within the rising channel.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is consolidating near $63.20, holding firmly within a rising channel that has guided the rebound since the late-November low at $60.53. The 50-EMA at $62.92 continues to provide short-term support, while the 200-EMA at $63.71 caps further upside, creating a narrowing zone of compression. A breakout above the 200-EMA would clear the path toward $64.42 and the upper channel line near $65.00.

Momentum remains constructive, with RSI hovering around 55, suggesting steady—but not overstretched—buying interest. A drop below $62.10 would weaken the structure and expose $61.34, but as long as price holds the channel floor, Brent retains a mild bullish bias.