Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Offset Oversupply Fears

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices steadied on Friday as geopolitical tensions provided mild support, countering concerns over rising supply and weakening U.S. demand.

Brent and WTI crude are set for a second straight weekly decline of about 2%, pressured by a surprise 5.2 million-barrel U.S. inventory build and muted refinery activity. OPEC+’s decision to raise output slightly in December has also weighed on sentiment, though producers remain cautious about oversupply.

Meanwhile, disruptions to global trade routes and sanctions-linked uncertainty are helping balance the market. China’s crude imports rose 8.2% year-over-year in October, signaling steady demand amid a fragile global outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGZ2025) is trading near $4.39, consolidating after testing the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation. The pattern shows slowing momentum as price approaches resistance at $4.42–$4.45, where prior rallies have stalled.

On the 4-hour chart, the 20-EMA is holding above the 50-EMA, suggesting short-term bullish structure, though overextension may invite a pullback.

The RSI near 63 indicates mildly overbought conditions, hinting that buyers might soon take profits. Immediate support lies around $4.20, followed by $4.03 near the 50-EMA. A confirmed breakout above $4.45 could open the way toward $4.64 and $4.86, while a breakdown below $4.19 would expose $4.03.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is trading around $60.15, attempting to recover after finding support near $59.00. On the 4-hour chart, prices remain capped by a descending trendline drawn from late September, signaling that sellers still control the upper hand.

The 20-EMA is flat, while the 200-EMA near $61.00 adds another resistance layer. A break above that zone could open room toward $62.50.

The RSI sits around 48, showing neutral momentum with early signs of recovery but no strong confirmation of bullish strength yet. If prices fail to clear $61.00, another pullback toward $59.00 or even $57.60 is possible.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading near $64.09, holding steady after rebounding from support around $62.50. The 4-hour chart shows price attempting to reclaim the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $64.11, but resistance from the descending trendline and 200-period EMA remains intact near $65.30.

Momentum is neutral, with the RSI hovering around 48, suggesting consolidation before a clearer direction emerges. A breakout above $64.20–$64.50 could push prices toward $65.30 and $66.60, while a rejection might trigger another drop toward $62.50 or even $61.40.