Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Inventories Rise, Charts Turn Lower Near Resistance

Market Overview

On Thursday during the Asian session, heightened geopolitical tensions have injected volatility into oil and natural gas markets, with crude benchmarks retreating over 2% in early Asian trade after initial gains.

Market sentiment softened as concerns over potential supply disruptions eased, while larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventories, rising by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million, added bearish pressure. Venezuela’s return to higher output and resuming exports further weighed on prices.

Conversely, solid Chinese crude imports, which are up 17% year-on-year in December and predictions of balanced 2026 supply-demand fundamentals from major producers provide a supportive backdrop. Near term, WTI may hold within a $55–$65 band as risks persist.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.17 after failing to hold above the $3.38 resistance zone, which is now acting as supply. On the 4-hour chart, repeated rejections along a descending trendline continue to cap upside attempts, keeping price locked inside a broader bearish channel. Recent candles show long upper wicks, a clear sign that sellers are still active on rallies.

On the downside, initial support is seen at $3.05, followed by $2.83, where prior demand and a horizontal base converge. Both the 50 and 200 EMAs are sloping lower, reinforcing the downside bias. The RSI is hovering near 40, pointing to weak momentum without reaching oversold levels. From a trading perspective, a sell below $3.15 opens the door toward $2.90, with a stop placed above $3.40.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $59.80 after a sharp pullback from $62.60, printing a strong bearish engulfing candle on the 4H chart. Price rejected the upper resistance zone inside a broader descending channel, aligned with a falling trendline from November highs.

The recent breakout lost momentum around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is prompting some profit-taking in the market. Immediate support sits at $58.70, which is followed by $56.70, where the rising lower trendline comes into play. The leading indicator, RSI, has rolled over from near 70, signaling fading momentum rather than a full trend reversal. From a trading perspective, a sell below $59.70 opens the door toward $58.00, with a stop placed above $61.00.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading around $64.30 after a fast rejection from $66.70, where price met a descending long-term trendline and upper resistance. The latest candles show long upper wicks, signaling seller pressure near the top of the range.

The price of UKOIL remains inside a downward channel, however, the recent bounce stalled near the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark. The UKOIL is likely to face an immediate support near $63.90, then $61.20, which is aligned with the rising lower trendline. The leading technical indicator, RSI, has slipped from overbought territory, pointing to cooling momentum rather than strength. The trade idea to sell below $64.00, target $62.00, stop above $66.80.