Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: LNG Supply Fears Build Is Oil Ready for Another Breakout?

Oil News: LNG Disruptions Add to Supply Woes

Regarding oil supply, market fundamentals indicate heightened vigilance is required. Recent U.S. inventory data show demand signals are mixed and continued threats to energy flows are posed by heightened global geopolitics. The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that in the week of July 17, U.S. commercial crude stocks rose by 2.0 million barrels to (surprisingly) 411.7 million barrels and drawdowns were anticipated. However, the level of petroleum refiners remained high at 96.1% of capacity. Gasoline demand, which had rose by 1% year-on-year to 8.9 million barrels, and Jet Fuel demand, which had risen by 9%, demonstrated that the demand for transportation had increased.

Disruptions along global LNG trade routes continue to dominate the natural gas markets. QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure of LNG shipments to several Asian customers for at least the remainder of the month. Regional disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz have caused Qatar to account for almost 20% of the world’s LNG trade, leading to concerns of winter supply.

The EIA notes that global LNG trade reached an unprecedented 56.3 Bcf/d in 2025, and under the current geopolitical conditions, U.S. LNG exports are poised to significantly influence world markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas continues trading in a broad consolidation range after a break above $2.95 could not be sustained. Currently, the contract trades at $2.89, below the 50-day moving average ($3.03), an above the 100-day moving average ($2.88), suggesting a neutral medium-term outlook.

First, resistance is at $2.95, followed by $3.03 and $3.09. First, support is at $2.83, with further support at $2.78 and $2.73. RSI is at 41, suggesting weak buying pressure.

A break and close above $2.95 is needed to improve the outlook for the market and open $3.03 and $3.09. This market would remain range-bound. A break below $2.83 would improve selling pressure and support an advance to $2.78.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Pullback Tests Channel Support Above $90

WTI crude has continued its upward trend around the $93.25 mark, and has pulled back from that level and is around $90.60, where it is testing the channel’s median trendline. This price is well above the 50-day ($87.09) and 100-day ($83.66) EMAs, and the overall bullish trend is still in control.

There is resistance around $93.25, and then further resistance around $95.90 and $98.62. There is initial support at $90.02 with stronger support at $87.36. There is stronger support at the lower channel line. The RSI has moved from overbought to about 58, so the momentum is not bearish and is cooling.

As long as WTI stays above $90.00, we can expect buyers to go after $93.25. If $90.00 is broken, then we can expect WTI to go after $87.36, where we can expect buyers to come in and defend the trend.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Rally Pauses Below Key Fibonacci Resistance

Brent crude has just moved lower after reaching the first level of profit taking from the 0% Fibonacci retracement at $101.84. Price is currently at $98.96 and well above the 50 and 100 day moving averages. The bullish outlook is still intact.

Currently, there is more immediate resistance at $101.84, and then at $108.16 and $114.67. There is initial support at $94.51 (23.6% Fibonacci), with stronger supports at $89.81 and $85.96. The RSI is at 70 and is rolling over from the overbought region which shows that momentum is slowing down.

The longer-term outlook appears bullish while Brent stays above $94.51. A recovery above $101.84 would confirm the bullish trend while a sustained break below $94.51 could initiate a broader decline towards $89.81.