Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Markets Rebound After 3.4M-Barrel Draw Shifts Sentiment

Market Overview

Oil prices inched higher after a sharp 2.1% decline, as traders balanced rising geopolitical tensions with fresh signs of tightening U.S. supply. Markets briefly slipped on concerns that a potential easing of international frictions could release additional crude into an already well-supplied global system, where offshore storage remains elevated and output quotas have increased.

However, sentiment shifted after the EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel draw, far above expectations of 603,000 barrels, reflecting strong refining activity and export demand. Gasoline and distillate builds signaled softer consumption, while investors await policy deadlines that could influence flows from major producers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is holding within a well-defined ascending channel, with price rebounding sharply from the mid-channel support near $4.24. The 4h candles show steady higher lows since late October, keeping the broader trend biased upward despite short pullbacks.

Price is currently hovering near $4.52, just beneath the resistance band around $4.67, where recent rejection wicks appeared. The 20-EMA remains above the 50-EMA, signaling steady short-term momentum, while the RSI has climbed back toward 60 without showing divergence.

A clean break above $4.67 opens the next leg toward $4.82–$4.90, whereas failure to hold above $4.45 risks a slide back toward the channel floor near $4.30.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is tightening inside a symmetrical triangle, with price holding near $59.40 as volatility continues to compress. The descending trendline from $61.47 is still capping every bounce, while the rising base from $57.36 has been respected for nearly a month.

Recent candles show small bodies and shallow wicks, reflecting reduced conviction on both sides. The 20-EMA is flattening and the 200-EMA sits overhead, keeping momentum neutral. RSI remains near 45, offering no divergence but confirming the current consolidation.

A close above $60.84 would signal an early breakout, while a drop below $58.69 risks a move toward $57.36.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is coiling inside a narrowing symmetrical triangle, with price hovering near $63.70 as traders wait for a clear break. The chart shows a series of higher lows holding above $63.08, while every push upward continues to stall near $65.21 — the upper boundary that has capped momentum for most of November.

The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are flattening, signaling a market caught in balance rather than trend. RSI sits in the mid-40s, showing neither exhaustion nor strength.

A decisive close above $64.80 would suggest buyers gaining control, opening room toward $65.21 and $66.73. Failure to break higher risks a slide back toward $63.08, where the rising trendline becomes the final support before $61.97.