Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Middle East Tensions and OPEC’s 2024 Outlook Shift

Market Overview

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday, ending a five-day rally. Concerns over demand resurfaced after OPEC reduced its global demand forecast for 2024. The revision, driven by weaker expectations from China’s economy, raises questions about future oil market tightness.

This cut, the first since July 2023, coincides with signs of slowing diesel consumption in China and a property sector crisis. The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts and escalating Middle East tensions could further influence commodity markets.

Lower demand forecasts and geopolitical risks could impact the outlook for gold, oil, and natural gas, making market conditions more volatile.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.2480, down by 0.53% today. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point sits at $2.24, a critical level to watch.

Immediate resistance levels are at $2.33, $2.40, and $2.48, while support is found at $2.17, followed by $2.08 and $1.97. The 50-day EMA at $2.16 suggests some bullish support, but the 200-day EMA at $2.25 is adding resistance.

If prices stay above $2.24, we might see some upward movement, but a drop below could lead to increased selling pressure. Keep an eye on that pivot point.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $79.51, down by 0.15% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows a key pivot point at $78.64, providing support within an upward channel.

Immediate resistance is identified at $80.18, with further resistance levels at $81.43 and $82.88. On the downside, support is seen at $77.03, followed by $75.80 and $74.53.

The 50-day EMA stands at $76.41, while the 200-day EMA is at $78.02. The formation of doji candles under $80.18 suggests potential bearish movement, with a drop likely if WTI fails to break above this level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is currently trading at $81.61, down by 0.50% on the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is located at $80.81, serving as a critical support level. Immediate resistance is found at $82.65, followed by $84.20 and $85.79.

On the downside, support is seen at $79.35, with further levels at $77.62 and $76.19. The 50-day EMA is positioned at $79.36, while the 200-day EMA is at $81.38.

Brent’s ability to hold above $80.81 suggests potential for a bullish bounce, but a break below this level could lead to further downside pressure.