Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Moody’s Downgrade and China Data Cloud Price Outlook

Market Overview

Oil prices remained steady Tuesday as traders assessed geopolitical uncertainty, potential supply shifts, and uneven demand outlooks. Concerns over the breakdown of nuclear negotiations could limit additional supply from the Middle East, which analysts estimate might otherwise boost exports by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Asia’s strong physical demand, supported by rising refining margins—averaging over $6 a barrel in May versus $4.4 in April—helped cushion downside pressure.

However, China’s sluggish economic data and Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit, citing $36 trillion in debt, clouded sentiment. BMI forecasts a 0.3% decline in oil consumption for 2025, reflecting muted global growth expectations.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures have edged up to $3.15 after defending support at $3.10. Price remains confined within a descending channel, but this recent bounce suggests buyers are starting to step in. The 50-EMA at $3.32 still looms overhead as dynamic resistance. Until that’s cleared, rallies may fade.

The chart shows a string of lower highs and lows, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. However, today’s higher low could hint at a shift if price closes above $3.23.

A breakout from the channel could target $3.33 or even $3.44, but failure here could see price retest $3.03 or $2.96. Right now, it’s a wait-and-see setup—let the next candle confirm before taking sides.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil is hovering around $61.93, resting just above its 50-EMA at $61.75 and testing the rising trendline from the May lows. Price action has stalled near the $62.22 pivot, with resistance at $62.90 capping upside attempts. The recent candles are narrow and indecisive, hinting at hesitation from both sides.

While the broader structure still shows higher lows—suggesting accumulation—the lack of follow-through above resistance keeps the outlook cautious. A push above $62.90 could clear the path toward $63.84, but failure to hold the trendline may drag price toward $60.06.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $65.30, holding just above the ascending trendline and the 50-EMA at $65.01. Price has respected the trendline since early May, forming a clean series of higher lows, but momentum is now stalling just under resistance at $65.95.

Recent candles show hesitation—long wicks and small bodies—which tells us buyers are losing steam near this zone. If Brent can push through $65.95, the next stop could be $66.77. But if it slips back under the trendline, we may see a dip toward $64.14.