Market Overview
Oil prices rose Thursday as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September grew, despite higher U.S. inventories and OPEC+ plans to increase supply. A Reuters poll indicates two-thirds of economists foresee a rate cut, which could boost oil demand by lowering borrowing costs.
However, U.S. services sector growth in May may weaken the case for rate cuts. OPEC+ agreed to extend output cuts into 2025, with gradual unwinding beginning in October, pressuring prices.
Saudi Arabia’s cut in July crude prices and a U.S. crude stock increase further weighed on the market, leading to weekly declines of about 4%. The potential rate cut could stimulate economic activity, increasing demand for both oil and natural gas. However, the bearish supply outlook and rising inventories are expected to limit price gains in the short term.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural Gas (NG) is currently trading below its pivot point of $2.79, suggesting potential bearish pressure. Immediate resistance stands at $2.85, followed by $2.92 and $3.01.
Key support levels are $2.66, $2.57, and $2.48. The 50-day EMA is at $2.66, and the 200-day EMA is at $2.40, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. A break above $2.79 could shift sentiment to bullish, while trading below this level may maintain the bearish bias.
The technical indicators suggest caution as NG remains below its pivot point, with resistance levels acting as crucial markers for potential trend shifts.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
USOIL shows bullish momentum, trading above its pivot point at $73.38. Immediate resistance is seen at $74.91, followed by $76.08 and $77.10. On the downside, support levels are at $71.65, $70.40, and $68.87.
The 50-day EMA is at $75.92, and the 200-day EMA is at $78.54, indicating a short-term bullish trend. A sustained move above $74.91 could signal further gains, while a break below $73.38 may trigger a sharp selling trend.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
UKOIL is trading slightly above its pivot point of $77.93, indicating potential upward movement. Immediate resistance is at $79.21, with further resistance at $79.77 and $80.62.
On the downside, immediate support is at $76.73, followed by $75.48 and $74.32. The 50-day EMA is at $80.17, and the 200-day EMA is at $82.92, suggesting a bearish trend below $79.21.
A break above $79.21 could shift the outlook to bullish, while maintaining levels below this could continue the bearish sentiment.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
