Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Oil Rebounds on Risk Premiums, Gas Stays Range-Bound

Market Overview

Global energy markets are now facing a whole new level of geopolitical risk, with all the uncertainty over supplies slowly pushing up the price of crude – though overall, the fundamentals are still pretty stable.

Brent and WTI benchmarks have climbed for 2 days in a row now, with Brent inching up around $62.40 a barrel and WTI at around $58.10 a barrel – after traders weighed up the possibility of disruptions in key oil-producing regions.

Ongoing tensions between the major players have really got people worried about whether they can get the oil out of the ground in the first place or get it to the right people, and thus, we’re seeing these ongoing premiums added to the price. Against this backdrop, the fact that there is still a bit of a global oil surplus and demand just isn’t growing the way it usually does means prices shouldn’t get too wild.

But for now, markets are just having to wait for some clearer direction before they can start to unwind this geopolitical uncertainty – and that backdrop of tension is going to keep making the prices pretty volatile and sensitive to the slightest wobble in people’s views on the supply situation.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.43 on the 2-hour chart after stabilizing above the $3.35–$3.40 support zone. Recent candles show smaller bodies with long lower wicks, suggesting selling pressure is being absorbed rather than extended. Price remains capped below a descending trendline from the December high, keeping the broader structure corrective.

The 50-EMA is flat below the 200-EMA, confirming a neutral-to-soft bias, while price holds a base inside a loose descending channel. RSI is near 45, showing muted momentum with room to recover. Key resistance sits at $3.60–$3.65, while downside support is firm near $3.35. The trade idea is to buy near $3.35, target $3.65, stop below $3.20.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $58.35 on the 2-hour chart after rebounding from the $55.70–$56.00 support zone. Recent candles show long lower wicks near that base, signaling demand rather than panic selling. Price remains inside a descending channel, capped by a falling trendline from the December highs, while rising short-term lows create a tightening triangle structure.

The 50-EMA is crossing back above the 200-EMA near $57.90, hinting at short-term stabilization. RSI has pushed above 60, showing improving momentum without reaching overbought levels. Immediate resistance sits at $58.70–$59.00, with support holding at $56.70. The trade idea is to buy above $58.70, target $60.50, stop below $57.80.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $62.60 on the 2-hour chart after a sharp rebound from the $59.80–$60.00 base. Recent bullish candles show strong bodies with limited upper wicks, pointing to decisive buying pressure. Price has broken back above a short-term descending trendline, while holding a rising diagonal support, forming a tightening triangle structure.

The 50-EMA is curling higher toward the 200-EMA near $61.90, signaling improving short-term structure. RSI has climbed above 65, showing strong momentum without extreme conditions. Immediate resistance stands at $63.00–$63.20, while support is firm at $60.80. The trade idea to for a buy on dips near $61.90, target $64.00, stop below $60.80.