Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC Outlook Points to 2026 Supply Glut, Prices React

Market Overview

Oil prices slipped below $59 per barrel, extending a two-day decline as rising U.S. crude inventories and OPEC’s revised outlook signaled a growing supply surplus through 2026. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.3 million-barrel build in U.S. stockpiles last week, while OPEC’s latest forecast projects production will outpace demand next year.

Despite geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven flows in energy markets, the Energy Information Administration expects U.S. output to reach record highs, keeping pressure on prices.

Analysts say support remains near $60 per barrel, though rising inventories and steady production may cap further upside in the near term.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $4.47, pulling back after hitting resistance near $4.69, the upper edge of a rising wedge pattern. This formation often signals slowing bullish momentum and potential reversal pressure. The 20-EMA remains above the 50-EMA, keeping the short-term bias slightly positive, but the RSI has slipped below 50, hinting that buyers are losing strength.

A clear break below $4.45 could trigger a downside move toward $4.27 and $4.11, where trendline and horizontal supports align. Conversely, if prices rebound above $4.60, it may extend gains toward $4.86. For now, the market looks cautious — holding above $4.45 keeps the uptrend intact, but a confirmed breakdown would mark the start of a deeper corrective phase.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $58.45, stabilizing after a sharp drop from $61.30 earlier this week. The price found support around $58.10, which aligns with the 0% Fibonacci retracement and a key ascending trendline.

Despite the minor bounce, momentum remains weak. The 20-EMA has crossed below the 50-EMA, suggesting bearish control, while the RSI stays near 30, indicating oversold conditions. If prices recover above $58.90, a short-term rebound toward $59.30–$60.00 is possible.

However, failure to hold $58.10 could trigger further declines toward $57.30 and $56.70. For now, oil appears to be consolidating, with traders watching closely for a clear breakout or breakdown from this tight range.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is hovering around $62.70, finding temporary support after slipping below the key $63.30 level. The recent drop from $65.30 broke through an ascending triangle pattern, signaling that sellers are regaining control. The 20-EMA has crossed beneath the 50-EMA, confirming a short-term bearish bias, while the RSI remains below 30, suggesting oversold conditions but limited buying strength so far.

If prices rebound, resistance lies near $63.30–$64.20, where the broken trendline and moving averages converge. A sustained move above this area could spark a minor recovery toward $65.00.

On the downside, if Brent closes below $62.30, it may slide further toward $61.25 or even $60.60. For now, momentum favors sellers until price action reclaims the $63.50 mark.