Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Supply Shift and U.S. Contraction Shake Sentiment

Market Overview

Oil markets remain under pressure as geopolitical tensions and deteriorating demand weigh heavily on sentiment. Brent crude, currently hovering near $60, faces downside risk, with analysts warning of a possible retreat toward $55 if supply grows unchecked.

Saudi Arabia’s shift away from output cuts and an expected OPEC+ production hike in June add to bearish momentum. Meanwhile, U.S. economic contraction and subdued global demand have led Kpler to cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast from 800,000 to 640,000 barrels per day.

A Reuters survey now expects Brent to average $68.98 and U.S. crude $65.08 per barrel in 2025.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is holding steady near $3.39 after breaking out of a falling wedge last week. Price is respecting the short-term rising trendline and just cleared the 50 EMA at $3.32, which now acts as immediate support. Key resistance stands at $3.459, followed by $3.570. On the downside, watch $3.294 and $3.174 if the uptrend falters.

The 200 EMA at $3.66 looms overhead as a longer-term hurdle. For now, the setup favors bulls, especially if price can secure a close above $3.459 with volume. MACD momentum has turned positive, signaling fresh buying interest.

The structure is slowly shifting from bearish to neutral-to-bullish—something traders should note heading into the week. A pullback to $3.30 could offer a potential re-entry, but only if trendline support holds firm.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is sitting just below its pivot point at $58.44 after a steep decline, now trading near $57.77. The price is testing trendline support and struggling to reclaim the level after closing below it, a bearish sign in the short term. Immediate resistance sits at $59.43, with the next hurdle at $60.38. On the downside, $57.00 is the next key support, followed by $55.99.

The 50 EMA is currently at $61.21, while the 200 EMA is up at $64.11—both well above current levels, confirming the broader bearish trend. The recent breakdown suggests momentum remains with the sellers.

Unless oil can hold above this trendline, the path of least resistance may lead lower. Traders should watch for either a sharp bounce off $57.00 or further weakness toward $55.00 as confirmation of the next move.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is testing key support at $60.16 after slipping below its pivot level at $61.24. The downtrend remains intact, with price trading well beneath the 50 EMA at $64.30 and the 200 EMA at $67.46. Both averages are sloping lower, confirming broad bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance is now at $61.24, followed by $62.96. On the downside, $58.57 and $57.11 are the next supports to watch.

The recent breakdown through a rising trendline and horizontal support has left bulls on the back foot. Unless UKOIL reclaims $61.24 quickly, a continued drift toward the $58 range is likely.

For now, sellers appear in control, and any bounce would need strong volume and follow-through to change that. Keep an eye on how price behaves near $60—this is a key battle zone for the next directional move.