Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Prices Rise Despite 3M Barrel Build – What’s the Catch?

Market Overview

Oil prices crept up in early Asian trade, bolstered by a slightly firmer demand outlook and ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to shape how energy flows around the world. The International Energy Agency hiked its global oil demand growth forecast to 930,000 barrels a day – up from 860,000 – citing better economic conditions and a drop in crude prices.

WTI crude hung around $61 a barrel with its four-day winning streak. Supply disruptions also lent a hand, outages at a key Central Asian oilfield & Venezuela’s dwindling exports crimping near-term supplies.

Still, it’s worth noting the gains were kept in check by the looming problem of oversupply – the IEA kept hammering home that global production is going to outstrip demand this year too, as shown by last week’s US crude inventory numbers, which rose by about 3 million barrels.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG Spikes Above $5.25 as Breakout Meets Fib Resistance

Natural gas futures are trading near $5.28, holding elevated levels after a sharp breakout from the $3.70–$4.00 base. On the 4-hour chart, the move followed a clean break above a descending trendline, triggering strong bullish candles with wide real bodies, signaling aggressive buying rather than short covering alone. Price has now reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $4.89 and is testing higher Fib resistance around $5.65.

The rally remains steep but stretched. RSI has surged above 70, reflecting strong momentum but also short-term overheating. Previous resistance near $4.85–$4.90 now acts as first support, followed by $4.48 (1.272 Fib). A pause or pullback would be technically healthy within the broader reversal structure.

Trade idea: Buy pullbacks near $4.90, target $5.65, stop below $4.48.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: Triangle Breakout Near $60.55 with Fibonacci and RSI Signals

WTI Crude Oil ($60.55) is consolidating within a rising channel, supported by a trendline connecting higher lows. Recent candlesticks show indecision near $60.50, hinting at a potential breakout. Price retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($59.05) and bounced, confirming it as short-term support. Resistance looms at $61.44 and $62.35.

A symmetrical triangle is forming, tightening volatility. RSI is mid-range, not signaling extremes, but leaning bullish above 50. Moving averages are converging, suggesting a buildup before directional move. If price breaks above triangle resistance and holds above $61.44, momentum could extend toward $63.26. Conversely, a drop below $59.05 may expose $58.27.

Trade idea: Buy breakout above $61.50 with $63.20 target and $60.40 stop.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: UKOIL Holds $65 as Bulls Defend Trendline Support

Brent crude is worth around $65.13 just now, easing off a bit after failing to make a break through the $65.80 – $66.00 barrier.  The shape of the most recent candlesticks, though – with those small bodies & wicks poking up to $65.50 – $66.00 – is actually telling us that there’s some buying interest near the top of the channel but not that people are scrambling to sell.

The decline has been pretty orderly. Price is still holding above the rising trendline and that support area around $64.10 – $64.30. That, basically, aligns with the 38.2% fib – and that’s at $64.13. And if we go below that, the deeper lines in the sand are $63.30 (50% fib) and $62.50 (61.8% Fib), where our structure would come under real pressure.

Trade idea: Buy near $64.20, target $66.80, stop below $63.30.