Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Pullback or Launchpad? Energy Markets Face a Crucial Test

Market Overview

WTI crude fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, but prices are still set for their best monthly performance since July 2023. This is mainly because rising geopolitical risks have made energy supply security, especially along important shipping routes, a bigger focus for markets.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for crude oil and LNG shipments, and its importance in global energy trade has made it a major area of concern.

In addition to shipping risks, recent supply problems like production outages, weather issues in the US, and stricter limits on Russian oil have pushed prices higher. These factors are helping to keep oil and natural gas prices up, even though there are expectations of oversupply.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG Near $3.85: Rising Channel Holds as Momentum Cools

Natural gas is trading around $3.85, holding steady after a strong rally that took the price up from below $2.00 earlier this month. On the 2-hour chart, the price is still moving within a rising channel. Recent candles have smaller bodies and mixed wicks, which suggests momentum is slowing but not reversing.

The market is staying above the 50-period EMA near $3.56, and the 100-period EMA around $3.00 is still moving higher, which confirms the trend is strong. The RSI has dropped from overbought levels above 70 to about 55 to 60, showing the market is pausing rather than reversing. Key support is at $3.55 and $3.00, with resistance near $4.00 to $4.35.

Trade idea: Look to buy on dips near $3.60, with a target of $4.30 and a stop below $3.40.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: USOIL Holds Near $64.30 After Sharp Pullback

WTI crude oil trades near $64.30 after pulling back from $66.00. On the 2-hour chart, the price is still within a rising channel, but recent red candles show it was rejected at the top, which signals some short-term pressure. A long bearish candle followed by smaller candles points to profit-taking, not a change in trend.

The price remains above the 50-period EMA at $63.70, so the overall trend is still positive. The RSI has dropped from above 70 to the low 50s, which shows momentum is cooling but not turning weak. Key support is at $63.70 and $62.90, with resistance at $64.90 to $66.00.

Trade idea: Consider buying on dips near $63.70, aiming for a target of $66.00, with a stop below $62.90.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: UKOIL Near $68.45: Fibonacci Support Holds as Trendline Faces Pressure

Brent crude is trading around $68.45, slipping after being pushed back from the $70.50 to $71.00 area. On the 2-hour chart, the price is pulling back within an upward trend and is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $68.15.

Recent red candles with long upper wicks show that attempts to move above resistance have failed, but the price is still holding above the rising trendline from the late-January low.

Brent is still above the 50-period EMA near $67.40, which keeps the overall outlook positive. The RSI has dropped from above 70 to the mid-50s, showing that momentum is slowing but not reversing. Key support is at $68.15 and $67.40, while resistance is at $69.10 and $70.60.

Trade idea: Consider buying near $68.20, aiming for a target of $70.60, with a stop below $67.30.