Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rally Extends, but Descending Trendlines Cap Upside Potential

Market Overview

Oil prices steadied after a five-session rally, with Brent and WTI up roughly 6% since December 16, rebounding from near five-year lows. The recovery has been driven by firm US economic growth, thin year-end liquidity, and rising geopolitical tensions that have heightened supply risk perceptions across global energy markets.

Disruptions to exports from key producers and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure have added a risk premium, supporting crude despite rising inventories. US crude stockpiles increased by 2.39 mn barrels last week, but the data was largely overlooked as macro momentum dominated.

While near-term prices remain supported, forecasts for a supply surplus continue to cap longer-term upside for oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $4.46 on the 4-hour chart after a sharp rebound from the $3.82–$3.90 base. Price has reclaimed the $4.35 pivot and is now pressing into a descending trendline that has capped rallies since early December. The recovery candles show strong bullish bodies, suggesting fresh buying rather than short covering.

The 50-EMA is curling higher near $4.40, while the 100-EMA sits slightly above around $4.55, creating a near-term decision zone. RSI has pushed toward 65, reflecting improving momentum but nearing short-term resistance. A confirmed break above $4.55 would expose $4.87 next, while rejection risks a pullback toward $4.11. The trade idea is to buy pullbacks near $4.35, target $4.85, stop below $4.05.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $58.50 on the 4-hour chart, extending its recovery from the $54.98 low while testing a long-standing descending trendline that has capped price since early December. The rebound has been supported by a series of higher lows, suggesting short-term structure is improving, even as the broader trend remains cautious.

Recent bullish candles show solid bodies with limited lower wicks, pointing to steady buying interest rather than short-covering. Price has reclaimed the $58.10–$58.30 support zone, which now acts as a short-term pivot. The 50-EMA is curling higher near $57.90, offering dynamic support, while the 100-EMA remains overhead near $59.10, aligning with trendline resistance.

RSI is rising toward 60, reflecting strengthening momentum but not yet overbought conditions. A clean break above the descending trendline and $59.10 could open room toward $59.90 and $60.85. Failure here may trigger a pullback toward $57.10. Trade idea is to buy dips near $58.00, target $60.00, stop below $56.90.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $61.95 on the 4-hour chart, extending its rebound from the $58.73 low but now approaching a key resistance zone. Price has reclaimed the $61.00–$61.30 pivot, with higher lows suggesting steady buying rather than a short squeeze.

The 50-EMA is turning higher near $61.20, while the 100-EMA and a descending trendline converge around $62.80–$63.30, forming a critical upside barrier. RSI is rising toward 70, reflecting strong momentum but also hinting at near-term hesitation.

A clean break above $63.30 would shift the structure bullish and open $64.10–$65.00. Failure here risks a pullback toward $60.60 support.
Trade idea is to buy dips near $61.20, target $64.00, stop below $59.90.