Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rate Cut Bets Fuel Energy Bulls Despite Geopolitical Risks

Market Overview

WTI crude eased below $64 per barrel after a recent 2% surge, as traders weighed the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions on global supply risks. Market caution tempered gains despite stronger Japanese economic data pointing to increased energy demand in Asia.

Expectations of a potential US rate cut in September continue to lend support, with looser monetary policy seen as a catalyst for economic growth and fuel consumption.

While near-term volatility remains driven by uncertainty in diplomatic negotiations, underlying demand signals and supportive central bank policy keep the medium-term oil and natural gas outlook resilient.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas is attempting a bullish reversal after finding support near $2.775, breaking above its short-term downtrend line on the 2-hour chart. Price is testing the 50-EMA at $2.878, with the 100-EMA resistance ahead at $2.929.

A sustained breakout above $2.929 could open the way to $2.983 and the $3.05 psychological level. However, failure to hold above $2.878 may trigger a retest of $2.851 and $2.775. RSI at 60 suggests bullish momentum, but a pullback remains possible before a stronger rally.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $63.48 after failing to sustain above the $64.15 resistance zone, which aligns with the 50-EMA on the 2-hour chart. Price remains capped by the descending trendline from the August highs and the 100-EMA near $64.22.

A rejection here could send prices back toward $61.97 support, with a deeper slide possible toward $61.08 and $60.26 if selling pressure accelerates.
The RSI has turned lower from the 57 area, hinting at weakening bullish momentum.

A decisive close above $64.15 would invalidate the bearish bias, opening a path to $65.12 and $66.46. Until then, the downtrend structure remains intact, and sellers have the near-term edge.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading at $66.42, just below the 50-EMA ($66.49) and the 100-EMA ($67.08) on the 2-hour chart, facing resistance from a descending trendline. A break above $67.07 could open the door to $68.16, with further strength toward $69.11.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $65.73, followed by $64.99 and $64.11. The RSI has eased from overbought levels, suggesting potential consolidation or a pullback before any sustained move.

If bulls fail to reclaim $67.07, sellers could regain control, targeting $65.73 initially. A close below this level would shift focus to $64.11, reinforcing the broader bearish trend seen since early August.