Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rebounds Fade as OPEC+ Supply and Weak Demand Weigh

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas markets are reacting to renewed geopolitical tensions that have disrupted parts of global energy logistics. WTI crude rebounded toward $56 per barrel, recovering from a near five-year low, after tighter enforcement actions constrained some sanctioned oil flows.

The move offered short-term relief, but gains remained limited as markets weighed the possibility of easing restrictions on other major producers, which could add supply back into an already well-stocked market.

Energy prices continue to face headwinds from rising OPEC+ output, growing non-OPEC supply, and early signs of demand softness across key consuming regions. With inventories ample and demand signals weakening, oil remains on track for its worst annual performance in seven years, keeping the broader energy outlook cautious despite geopolitical risk premiums.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading near $3.96 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing from the $3.85–$3.90 support area, where buyers stepped in along a rising long-term trendline. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with lower wicks, suggesting selling pressure is easing after the sharp pullback from the $4.90 peak.

Price remains below the 50-EMA near $4.05 and the 100-EMA around $4.45, keeping the short-term structure cautious. Immediate resistance sits at $4.07, followed by $4.25, which aligns with a prior horizontal level and a Fibonacci retracement of the latest downswing.

On the downside, a break below $3.85 would expose $3.70. RSI has rebounded toward 45, pointing to stabilising momentum but no clear trend reversal yet.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $56.10 on the 2-hour chart after rebounding from the lower boundary of a descending channel that has guided price action since early December. Recent candlesticks show long lower wicks near $55.15, signaling dip buying rather than panic selling. However, the rebound remains corrective so far.

Price is still capped below the 50-EMA near $56.70 and well under the 100-EMA around $58.10, keeping the broader bias tilted lower. Immediate resistance sits at $56.70–$57.15, a prior support zone now acting as supply. A move above this area would expose $58.10.

On the downside, support holds at $55.15, followed by $54.40. RSI has recovered toward 45, showing improving momentum but not a bullish shift. Unless WTI breaks the channel top, rallies may fade into resistance.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $59.75 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing modestly from the lower boundary of a descending channel that has defined price action since early December. Recent candlesticks show long lower shadows around $58.70, signaling short-term demand emerging near channel support, though follow-through remains limited.

Price is still trading below the 50-EMA near $60.10 and the 100-EMA around $61.75, keeping the broader structure bearish. Immediate resistance sits at $60.10, followed by $60.90, a prior breakdown level. A sustained move above this zone would be needed to ease downside pressure.

On the downside, key support holds at $58.70, with the next level near $58.00. RSI has rebounded toward 42, indicating stabilising momentum but no clear trend reversal yet.