Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Channels and Geopolitical Tensions Shape Prices

Market Overview

Crude oil climbed to a two-week high as geopolitical tensions tightened global supply expectations. Disruptions to key export routes pushed Russian product shipments down to 1.7 million bpd, a three-year low, while tanker storage surged 12 percent to 124.6 million barrels, signaling constrained flow.

Saudi Arabia’s price cut for Asian buyers underscored softer demand, tempering gains. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its plan to pause output increases amid forecasts for a Russian product surplus next year.

US crude inventories remain 3 percent below seasonal norms, and rig counts dropped to a four-year low, adding further uncertainty to oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading around $5.08, respecting a rising channel that has guided price action since late November. The upper boundary near $5.11 is acting as immediate resistance, with recent candles showing hesitation through small upper wicks.

Support sits at the mid-channel line near $4.95, followed by stronger structure at $4.80. The 50-EMA is rising and holding beneath price, confirming a steady uptrend, while the 200-EMA provides deeper support near $4.69.

RSI remains just below 60, indicating controlled bullish momentum without overbought conditions. A breakout above $5.11 may open $5.26 and $5.40, while a drop below $4.95 risks a move toward $4.80 and the lower channel line.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading around $59.55, moving inside a rising channel with clear support at $59.20 and resistance near $60.01. Recent 2H candles show rejection wicks at the upper boundary, signaling supply near $60. Price is repeatedly holding the mid-channel trendline, keeping the short-term structure intact.

The 50-EMA and 200-EMA remain flat, showing a balanced market. RSI is hovering around 50, indicating neutral momentum but no overextended conditions.

A dip toward $59.20 could attract buyers if the lower trendline holds. A break below that level exposes $58.40. A close above $60.01 would confirm strength and open the path toward $60.80 and $61.46.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $63.20, sitting inside a tightening symmetrical triangle formed by descending resistance from $63.61 and rising support from the $61.85–$62.50 region. Recent 2H candles show hesitation at the triangle’s upper boundary, with small rejection wicks signaling supply around $63.60.

The 50-EMA is flattening while price fluctuates around the 200-EMA, showing indecision ahead of a breakout. RSI holds near 50, reflecting balanced momentum.

A move below $63.00 exposes the lower trendline at $62.80, while a breakdown opens $62.53 and $61.85. A clean close above $63.61 would invalidate the triangle and allow upside toward $64.40 and $65.07. The pattern remains neutral until price leaves the apex.