Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising U.S. Crude Inventories Threaten Price Stability

Market Overview

Oil prices held firm on Friday, poised for a second straight weekly gain amid easing global trade tensions. Brent and WTI rose roughly 1% this week, supported by a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China—two of the world’s largest energy consumers.

However, prospects of increased oil supply—estimated at 400,000 barrels per day—are weighing on sentiment, as geopolitical negotiations suggest a potential easing of sanctions on a key producer.

The IEA revised its 2025 global supply growth up by 380,000 bpd, forecasting a surplus despite marginal demand adjustments. Meanwhile, rising U.S. crude stockpiles and rate cut expectations continue to shape the broader energy outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are holding near $3.355, hovering at the lower boundary of a sharply descending channel. The rejection from $3.423, a key former support, has solidified that level as near-term resistance. Price action remains pressured beneath the 50-EMA at $3.513, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Candlesticks around $3.35 are small and lack conviction, suggesting a lack of buying interest at current levels. Unless bulls can force a breakout above the $3.42–$3.45 zone, the trend favors continued downside.

If support at $3.341 gives way, the next levels to watch are $3.26 and $3.16. A clean break above the channel would be the first sign of a potential trend reversal, but for now, the momentum belongs to the sellers.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $61.08, hovering just under its 50-period EMA at $61.60, which has now flipped into resistance. After breaking below the rising channel earlier this week, price attempted a bounce but got rejected near the $61.64 pivot, forming a shooting star candle—often a red flag for bullish follow-through.

The structure still holds a series of higher lows, but momentum is fading. A decisive close below $60.18 risks exposing $58.93. There’s no strong bullish pattern emerging yet—no engulfing candle, no three white soldiers—and the recent candles show hesitation with small real bodies.

Until oil reclaims the EMA and pushes above $61.64 with conviction, this looks like a bear trap in disguise rather than a fresh rally.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $64.19 and struggling below the 50-EMA at $64.68 after failing to reclaim the $65.19 pivot. The price remains wedged between a rising trendline from May 2 and a descending trendline from the April highs, forming a tightening triangle pattern.

This kind of setup usually precedes a breakout, but for now, momentum looks indecisive. The latest candles show long upper wicks near resistance—suggesting sellers are still active. Unless Brent clears $65.19 and closes above the descending trendline, bulls remain on the back foot.

A breakdown below $63.44 would invalidate the ascending trendline and expose $62.28 next. Until then, price action is compressing, and traders are likely waiting for confirmation from either side of the wedge.