Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Supply Concerns Lift Oil While Natural Gas Finds a Technical Base

Market Overview

WTI crude futures rose more than 1% to around $57 per barrel, extending a rebound from near five-year lows as geopolitical tensions reshaped supply expectations. Heightened enforcement actions against sanctioned oil flows and the prospect of tighter restrictions on major energy exporters have renewed concerns about global supply stability.

Adding support, US crude inventories fell by 1.27 million barrels, marking a second straight weekly draw and exceeding market forecasts. Stockpiles at the Cushing hub also declined sharply, tightening near-term balances. Together, supply risks and falling inventories are improving short-term price prospects for oil while underpinning a firmer outlook for natural gas markets tied to broader energy flows.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $4.06 on the 2-hour chart, attempting to stabilise after a sharp selloff from the $5.00 peak earlier this month. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies and a mild bullish reaction above $3.85, indicating selling pressure is slowing rather than accelerating. Price remains below the 50-EMA near $4.15 and the 100-EMA around $4.45, keeping the short-term structure cautious.

The broader move looks corrective after a strong rally, with price now hovering near a key Fibonacci retracement of the November advance. Immediate resistance sits at $4.13, followed by $4.25. On the downside, firm support is seen at $3.85, then $3.70. RSI has rebounded toward 50, showing recovering momentum without overbought conditions. Trade idea is to buy above $3.85, target $4.25, stop below $3.70.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $56.35 on the 2-hour chart after rebounding from the lower boundary of a clearly defined descending channel. Recent candlesticks show long lower wicks around $55.15, signaling buyer interest rather than panic selling at channel support. Price has recovered back toward the mid-channel area but remains capped below the 50-EMA near $56.95, keeping the short-term bias cautious.

The broader downtrend remains intact, with channel resistance aligned near $57.80–$58.15, a zone that previously acted as support. A Fibonacci retracement of the latest downswing places the 38.2% level near $57.10, reinforcing resistance. On the downside, key support rests at $55.15, followed by $54.40.
RSI has rebounded toward 50, showing improving momentum without overbought conditions. Trade idea is to buy near $55.20, target $57.80, stop below $54.40.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $60.25 on the 2-hour chart, attempting to stabilise after rebounding from the lower boundary of a descending channel that has guided price since early December. Recent candlesticks show higher lows and small bullish bodies around $59.90–$60.00, suggesting selling pressure is fading rather than accelerating. Price is now testing the channel midline, while the 50-EMA near $60.70 remains a near-term cap.

The broader trend is still corrective, but a short-term base is forming. Immediate resistance sits at $60.70, followed by $61.75, which aligns with prior structure and a Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop. On the downside, key support holds at $59.90, then $58.70.

RSI has pushed above 50, indicating improving momentum without overbought signals. Trade idea is to buy above $60.00, target $61.75, stop below $59.40.