Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Supply Tightens After First US Inventory Decline in Weeks

Market Overview

Oil prices climbed to around $61.87 per barrel, supported by a 3-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories, marking the first decline in a month. Fuel stockpiles also fell, hinting at stronger near-term demand.

The US Energy Department’s plan to add 1 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve further tightened market sentiment. However, broader geopolitical tensions and signs of an emerging supply glut capped gains.

Data from Vortexa showed a record 1.24 billion barrels of crude in transit, echoing the IEA’s warning of a potential surplus next year as output rises faster than demand across key producing regions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGX2025) is trading around $3.36, finding support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.31 after a pullback from the recent $3.57 high. The 4-hour chart shows prices holding above both the 50-EMA ($3.29) and 200-EMA ($3.28), indicating that the short-term trend remains constructive as long as the $3.23–$3.20 zone holds.

The RSI near 53 shows neutral momentum, suggesting that buyers are regaining control but lack strong conviction yet. A break above $3.40 could trigger another push toward $3.57, while failure to stay above $3.31 may expose the next supports at $3.15 and $2.89.

For now, the structure favors gradual accumulation as long as the price holds its ascending trendline support.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is consolidating around $61.87 after breaking out of a descending channel that contained prices through most of October. The move above both the 50-EMA ($59.72) and 200-EMA ($61.13) signals improving short-term momentum, with buyers defending the breakout area as new support.

The RSI near 70 suggests the rally may pause before resuming, as markets digest the strong rebound from $56.36. If prices hold above $61.00, the next upside target sits near $64.05, followed by $66.44.

A close below $59.00, however, would weaken the structure and hint at a return to the mid-October lows. Overall, oil shows early signs of a potential trend shift toward bullish territory.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading around $65.60, stabilizing after a sharp rally from $60.00 earlier this month. The price briefly touched $66.56, aligning with the 200-EMA ($64.98) before facing mild selling pressure.

On the 4-hour chart, Brent remains above the 50-EMA ($63.92), keeping the near-term bias positive as long as it holds above $64.00, which also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Momentum has cooled slightly, with the RSI easing from 74 to 62, suggesting the market is pausing after an overbought phase. A sustained move above $66.50 could open the path toward $68.80, while a break below $64.00 might trigger a deeper pullback toward $62.55. The broader structure stays constructive for now.