Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Tariff Tensions Stir Volatility in Energy Markets

Market Overview

WTI crude oil steadied around $69 per barrel on Friday, capping a volatile week shaped by intensifying geopolitical tensions and a wave of new U.S. trade tariffs. While oil is set for a 6% weekly gain—its strongest since early June—short-term sentiment remains cautious.

Market participants are pricing in the dual threat of restricted global crude supply and softer demand due to tariff-driven inflation. A new set of U.S. import duties, ranging from 10% to 41%, raised concerns about slower economic growth, especially among major oil-importing economies.

These crosswinds leave oil and natural gas markets highly sensitive to further geopolitical disruptions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGU2025) is trading near $3.096, attempting to break above a descending trendline that has capped prices since mid-July.

While the recent bounce from $2.987 signals some buying interest, momentum remains weak as the price struggles below the 50-EMA ($3.108) and 100-EMA ($3.182).

The horizontal barrier at $3.115 is a key inflection zone. A sustained move above this could open the door toward $3.233 and $3.344. Conversely, failure to hold above $3.09 may result in another retreat toward $2.987 and potentially $2.901.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at $69.19, showing signs of consolidation near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $69.55. Price action has remained above the 50-EMA ($68.61) and 100-EMA ($67.83), suggesting near-term support is intact.

However, repeated failures to break above the $70.49 high point have led to a loss of bullish momentum. A close below $68.97 (Fib 0.382) could trigger a deeper pullback toward $68.03 and $67.36.

Conversely, sustained bids above $69.50 may renew upside pressure. The rising trendline support remains key; a decisive break below it would invalidate the current structure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $71.65, holding just above the key support level at $71.00 and the ascending trendline from July 24. Price action has slowed after failing to sustain momentum above $72.79 resistance, with recent candles reflecting reduced volatility and indecision.

The 50-EMA ($71.02) and 100-EMA ($70.28) are still trending upward, providing dynamic support beneath the structure. A break below $71.00 would weaken the bullish setup and expose downside toward $69.85 and $68.85. To resume the rally, Brent must reclaim $72.79 on strong volume.