Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Tensions Push Prices Up; Buy Oil Today?

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Published: Mar 25, 2024, 05:46 UTC

Key Points:

Geopolitical tensions and reduced U.S. rig count hint at a tighter global oil supply, boosting prices.
Natural Gas shows bullish signs, with resistance levels awaiting beyond the pivotal $1.8080 mark.
WTI and Brent Oil trend upward, with technical indicators suggesting a continued bullish outlook above pivotal points.

Market Overview

Oil prices experienced a notable increase in early Asian trading on Monday, influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions and a decrease in the U.S. rig count, suggesting tighter global oil supply.

Concerns over conflict escalations in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with targeted attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, have intensified worries about supply disruptions.

These developments, along with a modest reduction in the U.S. oil rig count to 509, hint at a constrained future supply, potentially bolstering oil prices. Conversely, the impact on natural gas remains indirect, primarily influenced by broader energy market sentiment and geopolitical stability.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) experienced a bullish uptrend, trading up 1.11% at $1.8200. This movement is framed within a technical landscape where the pivot point at $1.8080 serves as a critical juncture. Surpassing this level, Natural Gas faces resistance at $1.8595, with further ceilings at $1.9035 and $1.9408.

Support is established at $1.7788, with additional layers at $1.7261 and $1.6795. The proximity of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.8245 to the current price suggests a tight battle between bulls and bears, while the 200-Day EMA at $1.9034 points to a higher resistance zone.

The market’s bullish sentiment above $1.8080 suggests potential upward mobility, contingent on maintaining this pivotal support level.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL witnessed an uptick, climbing 0.49% to trading at $81.13. This movement occurs within a notable technical framework, highlighted by a pivot point at $80.39. Surpassing this threshold, USOIL confronts resistance levels at $81.87, escalating to $82.93, and further to $83.87.

On the flip side, support is solidified at $79.39, with subsequent foundations at $78.46 and $77.29. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hovers at $80.76, closely mirroring the asset’s current valuation, while the 200-Day EMA at $78.68 provides a broader bullish backdrop.

Predominantly, the market stance remains bullish above $80.39, signifying potential for further gains, albeit contingent on sustaining above this pivotal support.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI brent Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) marked a modest rise, up by 0.49%, to trade at $85.94. This increment reflects a constructive phase within the commodity’s trading dynamics, as it hovers above the pivotal $85.13 level, delineated by its technical setup.

The asset faces immediate resistance at $86.48, with further hurdles at $87.23 and $87.94, mapping potential pathways for an upward trajectory. Support levels are established at $84.57, then $83.89, and finally at $83.20, offering a cushion against potential pullbacks.

The proximity of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85.34 to the current price accentuates the bullish sentiment, further underscored by the 200-Day EMA at $83.24. Given these parameters, UKOIL’s outlook appears bullish above the $85.13 benchmark, suggesting room for continued appreciation barring any downward breach.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.