Market Overview
WTI crude traded below $59 per barrel, extending Monday’s 2% decline, as mounting evidence of a potential supply surplus eclipsed the usual geopolitical risk premium. Updated forecasts from the IEA and OPEC+ point toward a more comfortable global balance, with OPEC+ recently shifting its Q3 projection from deficit to surplus.
Further pressure emerged after Iraq restored output at a major oilfield representing 0.5% of global supply, reinforcing near-term oversupply concerns. While geopolitical tensions continue to underpin background volatility, traders are increasingly focused on upcoming EIA and OPEC+ reports for clarity on 2025–2026 demand trends.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural gas is trading near $4.84, holding just above the $4.76 support zone after breaking below its short-term rising trendline. Recent 2H candles show smaller bodies with lower highs, signaling fading momentum as price remains under the 20-EMA and 50-EMA. The next support sits at $4.65, followed by $4.52, where prior consolidation formed.
If buyers regain strength, immediate resistance lies at $4.91, the level where the breakdown started. A close above $4.91 could allow a recovery toward $5.09, but momentum remains weak for now. The RSI is sliding below 40, indicating sustained bearish pressure. Holding $4.76 is crucial, losing this level may push natural gas toward deeper December support.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
WTI crude is trading near $58.64, slipping below the lower boundary of its rising channel, which marks a shift in short-term momentum. Recent 2H candlesticks show heavier bodies and consecutive lower highs, confirming stronger selling pressure as price stays under the 20-EMA and 50-EMA. Immediate resistance now sits at $58.93, the former channel support.
On the downside, the next support lies at $58.26, followed by $57.68, where previous reaction lows formed. A break beneath $57.68 may open the move toward $57.12, aligning with deeper structure from late November.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
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See all Natural Gas forecastsThe RSI near 34 shows continued downside momentum but not yet extreme conditions. If buyers reclaim $58.93, WTI could retest $59.63, though the broader bias remains weak unless price returns inside the channel.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Brent is trading near $62.29, extending its decline after breaking below the rising channel that guided price action for the past two weeks. Recent 2H candles show stronger bearish bodies, confirming momentum shift as price remains below the 20-EMA and 50-EMA. Immediate resistance is now set at $62.55, the former channel support that may act as a retest zone.
On the downside, the next key levels sit at $61.84 and $61.45, where previous reaction lows formed. A drop below $61.45 could pull Brent toward $60.98, exposing deeper November structure. The RSI is sliding near 33, showing persistent downside pressure but not yet oversold. Regaining $62.55 would be the first sign of stabilization.