Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Weak GDP, Factory Slump Weigh on Crude Outlook

Market Overview

WTI crude futures edged up to $59.50 per barrel on Friday, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over global supply routes. Despite the bounce, oil remains set for a weekly loss exceeding 5%, weighed down by weak U.S. GDP figures and China’s steepest factory slump in over two years.

Meanwhile, signals of resumed trade negotiations between major energy consumers offered some relief. On the supply side, OPEC+ may increase output in May, with Saudi Arabia suggesting it can weather lower prices.

The energy market remains volatile, with geopolitical risk and macroeconomic data shaping the outlook for oil and gas.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are pulling back slightly from $3.543, but the broader structure still leans bullish. Price is holding above a rising trendline and is supported by both the 50-hour EMA at $3.391 and the 200-hour EMA at $3.343.

The recent surge from $3.042 to current levels signals renewed buyer interest, but traders are now watching to see if this trendline can hold during the current pullback.

If the uptrend remains intact, a bounce from around $3.419 could pave the way for another attempt at $3.543, and potentially toward $3.659. A break below the rising support, however, could expose the downside toward $3.285.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is hovering just below the $59.83 pivot after bouncing off $56.47, but price is now facing pressure from a descending trendline that’s capped every rally for over a week.

Despite the sharp recovery, oil has stalled as it approaches this key barrier, and traders are watching to see if it has enough momentum to break through. The 50-hour EMA at $59.05 is holding as short-term support, suggesting some underlying strength, but the broader trend remains bearish while price trades below the 200-hour EMA at $60.84.

To the upside, a break above $59.83 could open the door toward $60.63 and potentially $61.46. On the flip side, a drop below $59.05 may drag prices back to $57.90, with $56.47 acting as deeper support.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is holding just below $62.67, a level that coincides with a well-respected descending trendline. Price rallied from $60.34 and is now testing this resistance zone while staying just above the 50-hour EMA at $62.46. The 200-hour EMA looms higher at $63.94, reinforcing the broader bearish structure that’s been in place since mid-April.

If bulls manage a sustained push above $62.67, there’s room for a climb toward $63.76 or even $64.75. But failure to clear the trendline could see prices drift back toward $61.32, and if selling intensifies, down to $60.34 again.

The current setup reflects hesitation—not weakness, but not conviction either. Traders should keep an eye on the trendline reaction before taking sides. A clean break above resistance changes the tone, but until then, the burden remains on buyers to prove control.