Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Demand Recovery Drive the Next Bull Run?

Market Overview

Natural gas and oil prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions continued to shape market sentiment. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending May 2, according to API data, reflecting tighter supply.

Additionally, U.S. energy firms like Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy have announced rig reductions, potentially curbing future output.

Meanwhile, Chinese demand recovery following the May Day holiday and a projected 0.4% improvement in European corporate earnings are providing near-term support. However, ongoing global uncertainties keep markets cautious as traders assess supply risks.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.567, holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3.471, a key support level that has been reinforcing the recent uptrend. Immediate support is at $3.452, aligning with a rising trendline that has provided a steady base for recent gains.

On the upside, the next major resistance sits at $3.721, a level that could attract fresh buyers if cleared. A breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially targeting the $3.864 zone.

However, a drop below $3.452 could expose the market to a deeper pullback toward $3.310, reversing the current recovery trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $59.86, testing a key descending trendline that has capped gains since early April. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.51 adds another layer of resistance, making this a critical zone for bulls.

If prices clear this hurdle, the next targets are $61.69 and $63.40, both significant barriers that could attract fresh buying. On the downside, immediate support sits at $59.45, with a deeper floor around $57.60 if the rally falters.

Traders should watch this level closely, as a breakout could signal a broader trend reversal, while failure to clear resistance may keep the current bearish structure intact.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading around $62.84, testing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.50, a critical resistance level that has capped recent recovery attempts.

A clear break above this level could open the door to the next target at $64.61, a major swing high from late April. On the downside, immediate support lies at $62.44, while a deeper pullback could find support near $60.67.

Traders should watch for a sustained move above the 50-EMA, as it could signal a shift in momentum, potentially attracting fresh buyers aiming for the mid-$60 range.