Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Rebound Hold or Fake Out Below Resistance?

Market Overview

Oil prices rebounded over 1% Tuesday after six consecutive sessions of losses, sparked by technical buying and the return of Chinese demand following a holiday pause.

Despite the bounce, both Brent and WTI remain down more than 20% since April, pressured by OPEC+’s accelerated supply hikes and rising global surplus concerns. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties continue to cloud the demand outlook.

U.S. services PMI rose to 51.6 in April, offering mild support to sentiment. Still, Barclays cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $70 per barrel, citing structural headwinds and a fragile supply-demand balance moving forward.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are holding steady at $3.62 on the 2-hour chart after a strong rebound from below $3.00 in late April. Price action is currently respecting a well-defined ascending trendline, and buyers have stepped in just above the $3.56 support zone.

The 50-period EMA, now at $3.52, is sloping upward and offering dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish structure that’s been building over the past week.

A move above the $3.72 resistance would be key to unlocking the next leg higher toward $3.86 and potentially $4.01. Momentum appears healthy, and if the uptrend holds, bulls may continue pressing their advantage.

But if price slips below the trendline and the 50 EMA, it could open the door for a correction back toward $3.40. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with the trendline acting as a clear line in the sand for short-term positioning.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil is showing signs of recovery, now trading at $58.21 on the 2-hour chart after a clean bounce off the pivot point at $57.91. Price action has edged just above the descending channel it’s been stuck in since mid-April, which could be an early signal of a bullish shift—but it’s still brushing up against the 50-period EMA at $58.34, acting as soft resistance.

Traders will want to see a strong push through this zone before calling it a confirmed breakout. The immediate upside target sits at $59.78, where price previously stalled. If that level clears, the next key resistance comes in at $61.44.

On the downside, $56.40 remains first-line support, followed by a deeper floor at $55.05 if sentiment turns. For now, oil is trying to shift out of its downtrend, but without follow-through above $59, this could still be a false start. Keep an eye on momentum and rejection near resistance.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $61.35 on the 2-hour chart, nudging just above the pivot level at $61.01 after reclaiming ground from a low near $58.67 earlier this week.

Price is now testing the confluence of the descending trendline and the 50-period EMA at $61.43—a critical area that has capped rallies since mid-April. A decisive break above this zone could unlock further upside toward $62.70 and $64.10, where sellers previously stepped in.

If momentum fades, immediate support sits at $59.89, followed by stronger footing at $58.67. The structure still leans bearish overall, but bulls are trying to build a base. If Brent clears $61.45 with conviction, it may mark the beginning of a short-term trend reversal.

For now, the market is at an inflection point, and traders should watch closely for how price reacts around $61.50 before positioning aggressively.