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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Russia Sanctions Trigger Another Oil Spike?

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Aug 4, 2025, 05:29 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • OPEC+ boosts September output by 547K bpd, but Goldman Sachs sees real rise closer to 1.7M bpd.
  • WTI breaks below rising channel with three black crows pattern, hinting at deeper downside risk.
  • Natural Gas rejects $3.115 resistance again, leaning toward $2.987 with a bearish trendline capping price.
Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Russia Sanctions Trigger Another Oil Spike?

Market Overview

Crude oil prices fell as OPEC+ announced a 547,000 bpd output hike for September, aiming to regain market share amid tight inventories. The increase, part of a broader 2.5 million bpd reversal, reflects confidence in global demand, though Goldman Sachs estimates the real rise may be closer to 1.7 million bpd.

Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions risk further supply disruptions, particularly in Russian exports. At least two cargoes have already been diverted.

Market sentiment remains cautious as global trade restrictions and softer U.S. jobs data raise concerns over economic slowdown, further weighing on energy demand and investor outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart
Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas remains in a clear downtrend, trading below both the 50-EMA ($3.095) and 100-EMA ($3.160), with a descending trendline capping every recent bounce. The rejection near $3.115 confirms bearish control, while candles are forming below the breakdown zone. A lower high structure persists, and the price is once again leaning toward horizontal support near $2.987.

If $2.987 breaks, a short opportunity opens with targets at $2.901 and $2.822. A clean daily close above $3.115 would invalidate the bearish setup. The trendline remains the key dynamic resistance.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart
WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil has broken below its rising channel and both the 50-EMA and 100-EMA on the 2-hour chart, flipping momentum to the downside. The drop from $70.49 formed a clear three black crows pattern, a bearish signal often seen before extended declines. Price action is now consolidating below $67.20, and unless bulls reclaim the $67.80–$68.20 zone, further downside remains likely.

If price retests and rejects the $68 area with a bearish engulfing or shooting star candle, a short entry toward $65.78 makes sense. Stop-loss above $68.80 keeps risk defined.

A break below $66.56 could accelerate selling. This setup favors trend-followers watching for EMA rejections and clean candlestick signals.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart
Brent Price Chart

Brent crude oil has broken below its rising trendline and key EMAs, confirming a short-term bearish shift. Price rejected the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zones near $70.82–$70.46 and is now struggling below the 0.236 level at $69.66. A descending trendline from the swing high is adding pressure, while a doji near $68.95 signals indecision.

If price retests the $69.60–$69.80 zone and forms a bearish engulfing candle, it could offer a short opportunity targeting $68.32 or lower. A confirmed break above $70.11 would invalidate the bearish setup. This setup suits traders watching for failed Fib pullbacks and EMA resistance.

About the Author

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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