Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent Down 0.20%; Time for Bullish Correction?

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Updated: May 23, 2024, 10:03 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive session, influenced by Fed minutes.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, countering expectations of a draw.
Citi analysts highlight weak demand, increased inventories, and refinery margin concerns.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI and Brent Down 0.20%; Time for Bullish Correction?

Market Overview

Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive session after the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes indicated potential further rate hikes if inflation persists, potentially dampening oil demand. The minutes highlighted a commitment to maintaining current rates but noted a willingness to tighten policy further if necessary.

Additionally, U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 2.5 million-barrel draw, exerting further pressure on prices.

Citi analysts cited weak demand, increased inventories, and refinery margin concerns as contributors to the market softness. Russia’s OPEC+ quota exceedance and upcoming production cut discussions also impact forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.99, up 0.79%. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivot point at $2.77, with immediate resistance levels at $2.85, $2.92, and $2.99. Key support levels are positioned at $2.73, $2.68, and $2.61.

The 50 EMA stands at $2.67, while the 200 EMA is at $2.38, highlighting a bullish trend as the price remains above these averages.

The market outlook for Natural Gas is bullish as long as the price stays above the pivot point of $2.77. A break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $77.04, down 0.20%. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivot point at $76.69. Immediate resistance levels are $77.40, $78.39, and $79.24. Key support levels are $76.01, $75.43, and $74.80.

The 50 EMA is at $78.22, and the 200 EMA is at $79.30, reflecting a bearish trend as prices remain below these averages.

The market remains bullish above the pivot point of $76.69, but a break below this level could drive a sharp selling trend.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $81.44, down 0.28%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $81.20. Immediate resistance levels are $82.57, $83.49, and $84.51. Key support levels are $80.53, $79.36, and $78.47.

The 50 EMA is at $82.63, and the 200 EMA is at $83.86, indicating a bearish trend as prices remain below these averages. The market outlook for UKOIL is bullish above the pivot point of $81.20, but a break below this level could lead to a sharp selling trend.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.