Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Natural Gas dipped 43 points as traders booked profits with global commodities moving lower and the firmer US dollar weighing on the markets. Natural gas is trading at 2.884. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of the commodity rose 62 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 9. That was in line with the average rise of between 59 billion and 63 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Total stocks now stand at 3.499 trillion cubic feet, up 184 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 299 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

Shell’s LNG fueling stations in Waalhaven and elsewhere are just one piece in a grand strategy to build new markets for the company’s growing natural-gas business—and get a jump on the competition.

Shell is the most active of the international oil companies in LNG for transportation fuel. But all the big oil companies are focusing more on natural gas, jockeying for market position in the expectation that gas will be the world’s fastest-growing fossil fuel over the next two decades, thanks in part to tougher environmental standards around the globe that give gas an advantage over other fossil fuels.

Natural gas now accounts for about half of the production of most of the world’s biggest oil companies and is expected to dominate new output in the coming years. France’s Total SA plans to boost its LNG production capacity by 50% by 2020. Britain’s BP PLC expects roughly 60% of its production will be gas by the end of the decade, up from 44% in the first half of this year.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook (www.natgasweather.com)

Sept 14-20th: High pressure continues to dominate the southern US with very warm highs of mid-80s to 90s. Although, comfortable temperatures of 70s to lower 80s have spread across the Great Lakes and northeastern, but will warm briefly today and during the middle of next week in between additional weather systems sweeping through. Weather systems into the West will bring cooler temperatures the next few days, but warming after. A weak tropical system over the Southeast will bring heavy showers, but also with cooling. Overall, nat gas demand will be LOW over the northern US and MODERATE to HIGH over the southern US.

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