Natural Gas News: Bearish EIA Report Priced In — Is a Market Rebound Brewing?

Natural Gas Futures Hold Steady After Bearish EIA Storage Data

U.S. natural gas futures traded sideways on Thursday following the release of a slightly bearish EIA storage report that showed a larger-than-expected inventory build. The muted market response highlights traders’ wait-and-see stance as mild weather and high storage levels continue to cap upside momentum.

At 14:48 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.036, up $0.020 or +0.66%.

Did the EIA report confirm oversupply concerns?

Yes. The Energy Information Administration reported an 80 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending October 10, marginally above expectations and just below the five-year average build of 83 Bcf. This pushed total storage to 3,721 Bcf — 26 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 154 Bcf above the five-year average. These figures reinforce the view that inventories are well stocked heading into the heating season, limiting the need for aggressive near-term buying.

How are weather patterns shaping demand expectations?

Short-term demand remains soft. NatGasWeather noted that the U.S. experienced near to warmer-than-normal temperatures during the storage week, and forecasts for the next seven days suggest only light to moderate demand. Cooler systems are moving through the West and parts of the Northeast, but widespread heating demand has yet to emerge. The South, including Texas, remains seasonally warm with highs in the 60s–90s, keeping consumption in check.

What role is renewable output playing in limiting gas consumption?

The report also flagged stronger wind generation compared to the prior week, which likely displaced natural gas in the power stack. This added pressure to already weak gas burn levels. Combined with tepid weather-driven demand, increased renewable output is making it harder for storage levels to meaningfully tighten.

Are regional builds pointing to any supply tightness?

Not currently. Storage builds were reported across all regions, including 30 Bcf in the Midwest and 20 Bcf in the South Central. The South Central’s total working gas stands at 1,221 Bcf — more than 5% above both last year’s level and the five-year average. These regional injections confirm broad-based supply comfort and undercut support for any near-term rally.

Market Forecast: Bearish bias intact without colder weather or demand triggers

With inventories comfortably above seasonal norms and weather-related demand still limited, the near-term outlook for U.S. natural gas remains bearish. Traders appear reluctant to chase prices higher without a meaningful shift in temperatures or supply disruptions. The market is likely to stay range-bound or lean weaker until a catalyst emerges to tighten the supply-demand balance.

Technically, the market is hovering just above this week’s low at $2.964 and a longer-term bottom at $2.938. Although short-covering and profit-taking could turn the market higher in the near term, the broader trend remains down, with the 50-day moving average at $3.247 acting as firm resistance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.