Natural Gas News: Futures Lower This Morning as Weather Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

Natural Gas Futures Slip as Mild Weather and Heavy Output Weigh on Sentiment

U.S. natural gas futures edged lower Monday, as updated forecasts offered little short-term support and traders eyed resistance just overhead. While colder weather is still on the models for late November and early December, timing uncertainty and surging production have capped recent upside attempts. The market remains rangebound, awaiting a clearer catalyst to break directionally.

At 13:58 GMT, January Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.679, down $0.064 or -1.35%.

Will Cold Weather Arrive in Time?

Forecasts continue to point to below-normal temperatures moving into the West and Northeast between November 26 and 30, with cold expanding into the central U.S. in early December. But demand through the end of this week is expected to stay light. Traders remain cautious about front-running potential weather-driven demand that has yet to materialize with confidence.

Storage Draw Fails to Spark Momentum

The EIA reported a 14 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 14, beating consensus expectations of -12 Bcf and reversing the prior week’s 45 Bcf build. However, with inventories still 3.8% above the five-year average, the draw didn’t alter the broader storage picture. Bulls acknowledged the seasonal shift but lacked a reason to add length in the near term.

Record Production Maintains Pressure

Dry gas production climbed to 111.1 Bcf/day on Friday, up 7.9% year-over-year, with the EIA raising its 2025 output forecast to 107.67 Bcf/day. LNG exports remain firm at 17.7 Bcf/day and power sector demand is rising, but production strength continues to overwhelm those gains. Until colder weather drives a more aggressive heating load, supply remains in control.

Can Daily Technical Support Contain the Market?

Monday’s price action shows natural gas trading tightly between major daily technical markers. The market is pressing against the 200-day moving average at $4.735, a key resistance level.

Price action is pivoting around the 50% retracement zone at $4.634, which is acting as an intraday balance point.

Immediate support sits at $4.461, with deeper downside levels at $4.397. Below that, the 50-day moving average at $4.348 offers additional structure.

To the upside, breaking through the 200-day opens the door to a test of $4.806 and $4.881 swing highs.

With futures currently nested between the 200-day and 50-day averages, the setup signals a pause in directional conviction, pending a new catalyst.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Tilt

Despite structural demand support from LNG and power, fundamentals remain heavy with record supply and soft near-term heating demand. The failure to overcome key resistance and the market’s indecision near mid-range levels suggests a bearish short-term tilt. Without a firm cold weather trigger, traders should expect rangebound action with downward pressure prevailing into early next week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.