Fed Minutes Show Deep Division as Traders Brace for a Uncertain December Rate Decision

Fed Minutes Hint at a Split Committee and a Market Still Feeling Its Way

The October FOMC minutes landed with a thud — not because the Fed surprised anyone, but because the divide inside the Committee is sharper than markets expected. They cut rates by 25bps, ended balance sheet runoff effective December 1, and still couldn’t agree on how tight policy really is. Traders came away with one takeaway: December is wide open, and the Fed doesn’t sound confident enough to push back on that.

Is the Fed Worried About Inflation All Over Again?

Inflation creeping back to 2.8% year-over-year has the Committee split. Some see the bump as mostly tariff pass-through — annoying but temporary. Others are uneasy after four years above target, and the minutes make clear that concern isn’t going away quickly. The push-and-pull here matters: if the tariff shock fades fast, the doves get air cover. If it doesn’t, the hawks will argue the Fed already cut too early.

What’s Going On With the Labor Market?

The jobs picture is messy. Growth has slowed, layoffs aren’t rising much, and hiring is soft — an awkward mix for a central bank that wants cleaner signals. A few participants flagged the possibility that AI and automation are distorting old relationships between output and employment. Traders don’t need a full academic debate here; the takeaway is simpler: the labor market isn’t breaking, but it’s cooling enough that the dovish camp can make its case.

Does This Set Up a Real Fight Over the December Decision?

Pretty much. The minutes openly describe “strongly differing views,” which is rare language for the Fed. Half the table leans toward another cut, citing softer jobs and the desire to head toward neutral. The other half wants to wait — inflation’s sticky, growth’s holding up, and no one wants expectations drifting. Markets pricing roughly a coin-flip for a December cut feel directionally right. The November CPI and payrolls will decide the trade — assuming the data calendar gets back on track post-shutdown.

How Should Equity Traders Read This?

Stocks get a mild tailwind from the end of QT and the Fed’s overall easing tilt. But the minutes also call out stretched tech valuations and the risk of a messy pullback if AI-linked optimism overshoots. With leadership concentrated in a handful of big names, the market’s leaning on narrow shoulders. Buyers still show up on weakness, but the upside looks capped unless data decisively breaks the hawks’ argument.

What’s the Bond Market Signal?

Stopping runoff on December 1 is a big deal — it eases the pressure from tight money markets and cuts expected Treasury supply. That should help anchor yields, especially out the curve. Still, persistent inflation worries keep a floor under long-end rates. Traders may see modest steepening into year-end, with the bigger move hinging on the December call.

Where Does This Leave the Outlook?

Bottom line: the Fed is divided, the data is messy, and the next meeting actually matters. The end of QT removes one headwind for risk assets, but the Committee’s clear concern about valuations and financial stability argues for a bit more caution in positioning. Traders should keep their focus on November’s numbers — they’ll set the tone for the final move of the year.