Why is XRP Price Not Rallying Despite $1.27B in ETF Inflows?

XRP (XRP) has seen strong interest from major investors through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but its price continues to fall.

Spot XRP ETFs Attract $1.14 Billion in Over a Month

US-based spot XRP ETFs have witnessed $1.14 billion in total net inflows since their debut in November, according to data aggregator SoSoValue.

Still, as of late December, XRP trades around $1.85, down about 34.5% since October and 47% from its 2025 high near $3.50.

Why is XRP Price Declining Right Now?

XRP’s decline reflects a broader selloff sentiment across the crypto market as year-end positioning and macro headwinds weigh on sentiment.

After strong inflows earlier in 2025, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs reversed sharply in December. Bitcoin products had attracted more than $57 billion by mid-month, while Ether ETFs saw roughly $12 billion, but both faced heavy outflows toward year-end.

Bitcoin ETFs alone posted several days of exits in the hundreds of millions, including single-day withdrawals exceeding $800 million, driven by tax-loss harvesting, holiday de-risking, and thinning liquidity.

This institutional pullback capped upside across the market, hitting altcoins hardest.

Total crypto market capitalization fell by more than $1.30 trillion in the final months of 2025, with Bitcoin stuck between $80,000 and $90,000 after failing to sustain earlier highs.

Against this backdrop, XRP slipped to around $1.85-1.87 by year-end, down roughly 38% in Q4.

The broader risk-off environment outweighed positive XRP-specific developments, putting the token on track for its weakest quarterly performance in years and a likely negative annual close.

Gradual Supply Absorption vs. Near-Term Selling Pressure

Spot XRP ETF inflows reduce circulating supply by buying tokens on the open market, a dynamic Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has described as structurally bullish over the long term.

By removing XRP from active circulation, sustained ETF demand can tighten supply and support price over time.

However, this effect is inherently gradual and has yet to offset near-term selling pressure. For instance, on-chain data shows rising XRP inflows to exchanges, signaling increased sell-side activity from retail and short-term holders.

As a result, XRP has struggled to sustain rebounds despite the ETF inflow streak extending to 29 consecutive days, highlighting a disconnect between long-term accumulation and short-term market behaviour.

How High Can XRP Price Go in 2026?

Bullish calls predicting a 300% rally in XRP to around $8 in 2026 are resurfacing, but they remain far from consensus.

The projection traces back to Standard Chartered, whose digital assets research team outlined a bullish scenario driven by regulatory clarity, spot XRP ETF adoption, and expanding institutional use cases.

From current levels near $1.85, such a move would imply upside of more than 300%.

However, the bank’s forecast represents a best-case outcome, not a base expectation. Most alternative models and analyst estimates for 2026 span a wide range, with more conservative targets clustered between $1 and $4.

For now, the $8 target remains an optimistic outlier rather than a broadly shared market view.

Conversely, XRP’s risks of declining in 2025 will likely increase if it breaks decisively below its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA; the purple wave in the chart above) at around $1.86.

In that case, the Ripple token could decline toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $1.39 in 2026.