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The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Labor Reports and Venezuela’s Energy Impact

By
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jan 4, 2026, 17:07 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • U.S. markets enter 2026 watching labor and inflation data for signals on growth and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • Tech and energy sectors are set to steer sentiment as traders assess AI momentum and Venezuela’s oil impact.
  • Friday’s December jobs report will be the key test for the Fed’s easing outlook and market rate expectations.
Nasdaq 100 Index, S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended the holiday-shortened week lower as investors took profits following a strong year-end rally. The S&P 500 fell 1.03% to 6,858.47, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.52% to 23,235.63, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.67% to 48,382.40. With only one trading day in 2026, the pullback reflected consolidation after record highs in December rather than a shift in market tone.

Technology shares, which led much of 2025’s advance, were mixed. Semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron extended strength, but software stocks including Salesforce and CrowdStrike declined. Tesla also fell after reporting fourth-quarter deliveries below expectations, tempering enthusiasm in the growth space.

Energy stocks were steady into the weekend but are likely to draw renewed attention following geopolitical developments after the market close. On Saturday night, the U.S. military removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, setting up potential uncertainty for global oil supply and renewed focus on U.S. energy policy.

Despite last week’s mild losses, sentiment remains broadly constructive as traders enter the first full week of 2026. Investors will be watching key labor and manufacturing data for confirmation that growth remains steady and inflation continues to cool—conditions that would allow the Fed to maintain its gradual path toward policy easing.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jan 5
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 48.3 (prior 48.2)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast 59.0 (prior 58.5)
• All Day – Wards Total Vehicle Sales, forecast 15.7M (prior 15.6M)

Tuesday, Jan 6
Before the Open:
• AngioDynamics (ANGO), est. -$0.10
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – Final Services PMI, forecast 52.9 (prior 52.9)
After the Close:
• AAR (AIR), est. $1.04
• Penguin Solutions (PENG), est. $0.44

Wednesday, Jan 7
Before the Open:
• Albertsons (ACI), est. $0.68
• Apogee Enterprises (APOG), est. $1.02
• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), est. $1.95
• MSC Industrial (MSM), est. $0.95
• UniFirst (UNF), est. $2.06
Economic Releases:
• 13:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, forecast 47K (prior -32K)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI, forecast 52.3 (prior 52.6)
• 15:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 7.65M (prior 7.67M)
• 15:00 GMT – Factory Orders m/m, forecast -1.1% (prior 0.2%)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -1.9M
After the Close:
• Constellation Brands (STZ), est. $2.64
• Applied Digital (APLD), est. -$0.11
• AZZ (AZZ), est. $1.47
• Jefferies (JEF), est. $0.94
• PriceSmart (PSMT), est. $1.35

Thursday, Jan 8
Before the Open:
• Acuity (AYI), est. $4.57
• Commercial Metals (CMC), est. $1.57
• Helen of Troy (HELE), est. $1.69
• Lindsay (LNN), est. $1.47
• Neogen (NEOG), est. $0.06
• RPM (RPM), est. $1.41
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL), est. $0.36
• TD Synnex (SNX), est. $3.73
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 216K (prior 199K)
• 13:30 GMT – Trade Balance, forecast -58.5B (prior -52.8B)
After the Close:
• Greenbrier (GBX), est. $0.79
• WD-40 (WDFC), est. $1.45

Friday, Jan 9
Before the Open:
• Conagra (CAG), est. $0.44
• Lamb Weston (LW), est. $0.63
• Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.23
• Winnebago (WGO), est. $0.13
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Nonfarm Payrolls, forecast 57K (prior 64K)
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.5% (prior 4.6%)
• 13:30 GMT – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
• 15:00 GMT – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, forecast 53.5 (prior 52.9)

Central Bank Activity

Monday, Jan 5
• Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) – 17:30 GMT

Tuesday, Jan 6
• Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed) – 13:00 GMT

Wednesday, Jan 7
• Michelle Bowman (Fed Governor) – 18:10 GMT

Friday, Jan 9
• Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed) – 18:35 GMT

Fed officials are expected to reiterate their data-dependent stance, with markets pricing in one or two rate cuts this year. Any reference to labor weakness or slowing inflation could strengthen expectations for earlier policy easing.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Dow Jones: 48,382.39 (-0.67), support at 45,452.03, 44,332.75 (52-week SMA), then 43,340.68, resistance at 48,886.86.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)
Nasdaq: 23,235.63 (-1.52%), support at 21,898.29, 20,515.99 (52-week SMA), then 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)
S&P 500: 6,858.47 (-1.03%), support at 6,521.92, 6,221.48 (52-week SMA), then 5,943.23, resistance at 6,945.77.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an ongoing medium-term uptrend.

Outlook

The first full week of 2026 will test whether the market’s early-year rally can hold as investors absorb a full slate of employment and business activity reports. Friday’s December jobs data will take center stage as traders gauge the labor market’s response to last year’s slowdown and how it might shape the Fed’s next policy steps.

Energy will also stay in focus as investors monitor the aftermath of U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for oil production and prices. Any sign of tightening supply could inject fresh momentum into the energy complex, adding a new driver to market sentiment.

With the S&P 500 and Dow both holding near record levels, sustained strength in economic indicators and stable Fed messaging could support further upside. The week’s tone will depend on whether labor and manufacturing data confirm the soft-landing narrative while keeping inflation trends favorable for additional policy easing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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