Natural Gas News: Hot Weather Forecast Sets Bullish Tone for Futures This Week

Natural Gas Futures Supported By Broad U.S. Heatwave Through July 19

U.S. natural gas futures are expected to hold firm or edge higher during the week of July 14 to July 19 as widespread above-normal temperatures dominate key demand regions. Forecasts from NOAA, NatGasWeather, and major weather services show persistent heat across the South, Midwest, and Northeast, driving elevated Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) and intensifying gas-fired power burn.

Heat Ridge Expands Cooling Demand Across Key Markets

High pressure ridging will remain entrenched across the central and eastern U.S., with daytime highs frequently in the upper 80s to mid-90s°F and minimal overnight cooling.

This sustained heat is increasing baseload electricity demand, especially across ISO-heavy corridors such as PJM, MISO, and ERCOT. With little relief expected from cloud cover or frontal systems, CDD accumulation will remain elevated, reinforcing upward price pressure on Henry Hub futures.

Storm Activity Unlikely To Weaken Demand Profile

Localized thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the eastern U.S., but most are expected to be short-lived and isolated.

Afternoon storms may briefly suppress temperatures in specific areas, yet they are unlikely to materially reduce national CDD totals.

More importantly, there are no tropical systems or major production threats currently projected. As a result, the supply side remains stable and traders can stay focused on the demand narrative.

Storage Builds Lagging As Power Burn Rises

The EIA’s July 11 report showed a 53 Bcf injection, slightly below consensus. While total inventories remain above the five-year average, injections have trended lower in recent weeks as cooling demand pulls more gas into generation.

With dry gas production steady near 102 Bcf/d and LNG exports holding above 13 Bcf/d, the supply-demand balance is narrowing—supportive for prices if heat persists.

Technical Setup Suggests Room To Climb

Front-month Henry Hub futures settled at $3.314 on July 11, with solid support near $3.30. Key resistance stands at $3.640 (52-week SMA), and if that breaks, bulls may target $3.749—June’s swing high. The current heat pattern and slower injections offer a path for that level to be tested if weekly fundamentals hold.

Short-Term Outlook: Moderately Bullish

• Range: $3.30–$3.749
• Drivers: Persistent national heat, lagging injections, firm power burn
• Risks: Cooler forecast revisions, stronger storage builds, weaker LNG flows

Unless weather models shift materially cooler or storage rebounds sharply, futures are biased higher into the July 19 close. Traders should watch for midweek heat updates and the Thursday EIA report.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.