Natural Gas News: Mild Weather and High Storage Keep Market Forecast Under Pressure

Natural Gas Slides as Milder Weather and Ample Storage Weigh on Prices

U.S. natural gas futures opened the week under pressure, slipping after briefly breaching technical support at $3.063 before bouncing modestly. Traders are digesting bearish short-term weather patterns and elevated storage levels that continue to limit upside momentum, with Friday’s 5% decline capping a 6.6% weekly loss for November contracts, which settled at $3.106/MMBtu.

At 13:26 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.065, down $0.041 or -1.32%.

Is Warmer-Than-Normal Weather Across Key Regions Keeping Demand in Check?

Weather continues to lean bearish. Forecasters project warm conditions across the central and eastern U.S., with no meaningful cold anomalies in major population centers. A brief cool push into the Great Lakes and Northeast may offer modest support, but overall demand is expected to stay light to moderate over the next seven days. Highs in the 70s to 90s across much of the U.S., especially the Southwest and Texas, reinforce the muted heating demand outlook.

Does High Storage Leave Little Room for Upside Without a Weather Catalyst?

The latest EIA storage report showed a net injection of 80 Bcf for the week ending October 3, lifting total inventories to 3,641 Bcf. That’s 157 Bcf above the five-year average and 23 Bcf higher than the same period last year. Storage remains within historical norms, but as Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial notes, inventories 4.5% to 5% above average are “a little high” for early October. Kissler points to strong production and trader hesitancy to push prices higher unless storage levels start to close the gap with the five-year average — or a clear cold pattern develops.

What Is the Role of Technical Resistance and Speculative Positioning?

Technically, prices continue to face stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average near $3.267. Last week’s retreat from the $3.30–$3.50 range suggests recent strength may have been more profit-taking than true buying interest. Failure to hold below the key $3.063 support level early Monday hints at some bottom-fishing activity, but without a weather catalyst or tightening storage narrative, upside potential remains limited.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Holds Unless Weather Shifts or Storage Narrows

With mild weather patterns dominating forecasts and storage levels comfortably above seasonal norms, the near-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Technical resistance and strong production continue to cap rally attempts. Traders will likely remain defensive unless colder temperatures emerge or weekly storage builds slow meaningfully. A test of support below $3.00 is likely if demand fails to materialize.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.