Natural Gas News: Will Today’s EIA Inventory Report Trigger a Bullish Breakout?

EIA Storage Build in Focus as Natural Gas Futures Test Key Resistance

U.S. natural gas futures are trading slightly higher Thursday, with prices testing a critical technical zone just below long-term resistance. Traders are balancing expectations of a smaller-than-average EIA storage build against surging production and mixed weather forecasts. While the near-term bias is tilted bearish, Thursday’s EIA report could influence direction as contracts hover near key decision levels.

At 14:59 GMT, December Natual Gas Futures are trading $4.281, up $0.049 or 1.16%.

Can a Smaller EIA Build Overcome Strong Supply Pressure?

The market consensus points to a storage build of +32–33 Bcf for the week ended October 31, under the five-year average of +43 Bcf. NatGasWeather projects a tighter +29 Bcf injection, attributing the leaner build to colder-than-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. and reduced wind and solar output. A result on the lower end of expectations could provide a bullish spark, especially as last week’s build came in at +74 Bcf—above the seasonal average of +67 Bcf.

However, strong supply trends continue to dominate. U.S. dry gas production rose to 109.7 Bcf/day on Wednesday, up 9.3% y/y, just below Tuesday’s record-setting 110 Bcf/day. The ramp-up adds significant downside weight, even as LNG export flows remain steady at 16.8 Bcf/day. The EIA also recently revised its 2025 production forecast upward to 107.14 Bcf/day, reinforcing the broader supply surplus narrative.

Weather Models Offer Little Bullish Support After Weekend Cold Shot

While demand is expected to tick higher between Sunday and Tuesday due to a colder system across the northern U.S., broader trends remain neutral to bearish. Forecasts for November 10–14 have cooled slightly in the East but have shifted warmer in the central and western U.S. Further out, November 15–19 projections lean warmer in the South, which could suppress residential heating demand just as production hits seasonal highs.

Technical Outlook: Market Confronts Key Resistance Near $4.45

From a technical standpoint, December natural gas futures are pressing against a key long-term pivot at $4.336, with nearby resistance at the weekly high of $4.396 and the 200-day moving average at $4.455. A breakout above this cluster could signal further upside, but momentum has so far stalled.

If buyers retreat, the first downside target lies at the short-term pivot of $4.074. A break below that opens the door to the 50-day moving average at $3.929. The market is at a critical inflection, with price action finely balanced around fundamental and technical catalysts.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Unless EIA Surprise Triggers Breakout

While a smaller-than-expected EIA build could fuel a short-lived breakout, current fundamentals—record production, ample storage, and warming forecasts—support a bearish short-term view. Without a meaningful bullish catalyst or a sustained break above $4.455, downside risks remain in play.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.