Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Tumble as Hurricane Scare Fades

Prices remain buoyed in the North East
David Becker
Crude Oil daily chart, July 15, 2019

Natural gas prices moved lower on Tuesday as traders continued to unwind long positions that were taken ahead of landfall by Hurricane Barry. Since there was little infrastructure damage and crews were quickly able to return to drilling rigs, prices moved lower to reflect the likely return to normal activity. Prices rose last week driven by warm weather in the Northeast which continues to keep prices buoyed in that portion of the United States. There are no current tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. Last week NOAA forecast a wave to become a cyclone at a 40% rate.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices tumbled nearly 4% on Tuesday as traders unwound long positions. Prices sliced through support near the 10-day moving average at 2.38, which is now seen as resistance. Target support on natural gas is seen near the July lows at 2.21. Short term momentum is negative as the RSI trajectory dives lower. Positive medium term momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Prices in the Northeast Accelerated Higher

Northeast prices rose with warmer-than-normal temperatures. Prices across the eastern seaboard were slightly warmer-than-normal during the report week, driving up cooling demand in population centers. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went up 35¢ from $2.09 per MMBtu to $2.44 per MMBtu At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, prices increased 40¢ from $1.98 per MMBtu to $2.38 per MMBtu.

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