NVDA Earnings: Can Nvidia Keep the AI Trade Running—or Is a Market Reversal Next?

This Wednesday after the market close, NVDA again reports quarterly earnings. It will be the financial markets equivalent of the Super Bowl, just as it was a few months ago. And four times a year, since the company went from familiar to iconic, given its position in the AI business.

That position is essentially being the company that, more than any other in recent memory, determines the market’s mood. And, where the dollars flow. I do not think it is overstating it to say that the reaction to NVDA’s earnings report and analyst guidance in the live call that follows, could be the biggest determinant of the S&P 500’s next 10% move.

Is the stock market going up or down? That might depend on NVDA.

NVDA news sentiment, as displayed on the stock’s page on FX Empire, has been mixed of late. That alone, following a long period of nothing but love for the maker of AI chips that aim to drive our lives forward, is one hint that this quarter is one of higher than usual expectations for the stock.

Indeed, NVDA has had a fine 2025 so far, outperforming the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Magnificent 7 benchmarks by a wide margin.

NVDA has become so important in so many dimensions, we get the sense the market can’t really move independent of it. After all, if NVDA’s momentum is judged to be slowing or stumbling, that can’t be good news for all of its customers.

That’s headlined by some of its Mag-7 cohorts, and by association too many smaller companies in AI development to count, as well as all of the industries that are riding on AI to make them more profitable. If the AI trade were to suddenly reverse, ironically the winners might be those who stood to lose their jobs to their non-human replacements.

NVIDIA’s Dominance: Bigger Than Apple and Amazon Combined

NVDA is nearly 8% of the S&P 500, shown below. Not shown is that it is about 10% of the Nasdaq 100.

The shocking truth about NVDA stock

If you think NVDA is not “the” market-moving event each quarter, consider this. Pictured above are the top 18 companies in the S&P 500 (Alphabet has 2 listed tickers). NVDA is bigger than Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) combined! And, the combined market capitalization of the last 8 stocks on that list. NVDA is not just a stock anymore. It is the market’s heart, brain and spine, all in one.

So, we should try to get a sense of what the stock’s technical picture looks like, going into Wednesday night’s big event.

Analyzing the Technicals: What to Watch on the Charts

Starting with the daily, NVDA looked ready to roll over and end its roughly 100% run up since April’s low. But late last week was a signal the market might not be ready for that. Perhaps a pause that refreshes, plus a robust earnings report, will negate that threat indicated by a 20-day moving average decline (in red on the chart), the first since the spring.

The weekly chart is not nearly at that same level of concern to me. That simply means that it would take a really crushing earnings decline (10% orso) to really turn this longer-term trading indicator around. The 20-week moving average is still strong. That said, the PPO indicator at the bottom of the chart is quickly decelerating. That is often a significant warning sign.

NVDA: where this stock is going

NVDA is different from other stocks. Because it is priced based on a combination of life-altering change potential, and the fact that its growth continues to make a case for justifying a high valuation and resilient stock price. The company’s latest quarterly earnings report will be about the market’s reaction to it, rather than the substance of the report. And knowing just how important NVDA is mathematically to the broad stock market, this is one to watch closely this week.