Nvidia vs. AMD Technical Analysis: US Chip Deal and AI Growth Fuel Bullish Momentum

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have entered a rare deal with the US government to secure chip export licences for China. These companies agreed to hand over 15% of their China chip revenues to Washington. Nvidia will share earnings from its H20 chips, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chips.

Trump Reversal Unlocks China Chip Sales for NVIDIA and AMD

The arrangement follows months of uncertainty after the Trump administration initially banned H20 exports in April 2025. Trump reversed the decision in June after meeting Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The Commerce Department began issuing licences last week, unlocking access to a market worth billions.

NVIDIA could generate substantial revenue from H20 chip sales in China, with a portion going to the US under the deal. However, AMD’s contribution is also expected to be significant given the strong demand for AI chips in the country.

AMD Highlights Strong Q2 2025 Earnings

AMD posted record Q2 2025 revenue of $7.7 billion with a gross margin of 40%. The company reported a net income of $872 million. The export controls on the MI308 GPU hit results, causing $800 million in charges. Without these charges, non-GAAP gross margin would have been about 54%. CEO Lisa Su highlighted strong demand for server and PC processors. AMD expects growth in the second half of 2025, led by the MI350 accelerator ramp and EPYC and Ryzen gains.

The chart below shows that AMD’s P/E ratio is 100.51, which is higher than NVIDIA’s 58.79. A higher P/E means investors pay more for each dollar of earnings, which indicates overvaluation. NVIDIA’s lower P/E suggests a better value compared to its growth potential. While both stocks are expensive, Nvidia offers a stronger balance between price and performance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Technical Analysis

AMD Weekly Chart – V-Shaped Recovery

The weekly chart for AMD shows that the stock price has formed a strong bullish price action in the form of a cup and handle and a V-shaped recovery pattern. However, the surge in AMD’s stock price is not as strong as NVIDIA. The price action still suggests a likely continuation of the rally toward the $300 region. Recently, the price has been testing the key level of $185, indicating that this level may be broken, with the price likely to continue higher. A break above $185 will be bullish towards $300.

AMD Daily Chart – Bullish Price Action

The daily chart for AMD shows that the price has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern and has approached the resistance zone of $173 to $187. A break above this region will initiate a strong move to the upside. However, a failure to sustain above the $180 region will indicate further downside.

The emergence of bullish price action, with the price trending above the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, suggests that AMD is likely to go higher. The current drop from resistance is due to overbought conditions, as seen by the RSI. Once this correction is over, the price will likely move higher.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) Technical Analysis

NVDA Weekly Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge

The weekly chart for NVIDIA shows that the stock price has been trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The emergence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, along with price compression and bullish price action within this wedge, indicates that the price could move much higher from current levels.

NVDA Daily Chart – Bullish Momentum

The daily chart for NVIDIA shows that the price has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, followed by a descending broadening wedge pattern. The stock price has broken above the $150 level and initiated another surge toward higher levels. The rally continues despite overbought conditions, indicating that the price is likely to climb further. NVIDIA has shown consistent growth on long-term charts, driven by strong AI demand and robust company performance.