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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 11, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD gained today as commodity currencies have gained as traders are looking to add a bit of risk to their portfolios.
Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD gained today as commodity currencies have gained as traders are looking to add a bit of risk to their portfolios. The pair is trading at 0.8332 up 7pts.
China’s monthly trade surplus fell to $US19.6 billion in Nov., down 38.6 per cent from October, the government says as weak overseas demand weighed on the world’s second-largest economy. The national customs bureau said on Monday China’s November exports rose 2.9 per cent year-on-year to $US179.4 billion, while imports were flat at $US159.8 billion. The disappointing figures suggested that drivers of a rebound in the Chinese economy were still weak, analysts said.
China’s economic growth is seen as a key factor in the world’s economic recovery – hit a more than three-year low of 7.4 per cent in the third quarter. But recent data including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment – a key gauge of infrastructure spending – have all shown improvement, fuelling optimism that the worst was over.
The kiwi bounced on positive retail sales number and import data, as New Zealand exports a huge part of its production and dairy products to China.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 10, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
||
|
Dec. 10 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean PPI (MoM) |
-0.60% |
-0.70% |
|
||||
|
|
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean PPI (YoY) |
-0.20% |
0.20% |
|
||||
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (QoQ) |
2.6% |
-0.8% |
|||||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions |
-10.3 |
4.3 |
2.5 |
|
|||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Adjusted Current Account |
0.41T |
0.25T |
-0.14T |
|
|||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
-0.9% |
|
|||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
GDP Price Index (YoY) |
-0.8% |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
|
|||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Bank Lending (YoY) |
1.0% |
0.8% |
|||||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Home Loans (MoM) |
0.1% |
3.0% |
1.1% |
||||
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Trade Balance |
19.60B |
25.70B |
32.00B |
|
|||
|
Dec. 09 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
|
2.1% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-2.2% |
|
-2.0% |
|
-2.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
20.7% |
|
20.8% |
|
20.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
10.1% |
|
9.8% |
|
9.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
14.9% |
|
14.6% |
|
14.5% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 11 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-1 |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-42.5B |
-41.6B |
|
|
Dec. 12 |
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
-147.5B |
-120.0B |
|
|
Dec. 13 |
23:50 |
JPY |
-10 |
-3 |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
04:30 |
JPY |
1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 11 09:30 Spain
Dec 11 10:10 Greece
Dec 11 10:15 Austria
Dec 11 10:30 Belgium
Dec 11 10:30 UK
Dec 11 18:00 US
Dec 12 10:10 Italy
Dec 12 10:10 Sweden
Dec 12 10:30 Swiss
Dec 12 16:30 US
Dec 13 01:30 Japan
Dec 13 09:30 Spain
Dec 13 10:10 Italy
Dec 13 10:30 UK
Dec 13 16:00 US
Dec 13 18:00 US
Dec 14 11:00 Belgium
Dec 14 15:30 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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