NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 14, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       NAB Business Confidence                                                           3

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.                         

03:30     JPY         Interest Rate Decision                                   0.00%                    0.00%                   

Ten        JPY         BoJ Press Conference

Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.  Which is then followed by a Press Conference detail the reason for the decision and also the economic status of the economy. ( This is a close watch.. might present an interesting trade )

04:30     JPY         Industrial Production (MoM)                     4.0%                      4.0%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.                                                                                                       

13:30     USD       Core Retail Sales (MoM)                             0.6%                      -0.2%      

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.                   

 13:30    USD       Import Price Index (MoM)                          0.3%                      -0.1%

The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically. 

13:30    USD      Retail Sales (MoM)                                        0.8%                      0.1%     

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.      

15:00     USD       Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (January 2009 – January 2013) is to speak. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments. ( This statement could have effect on the USD)                                                                                             

 21:45    NZD       Core Retail Sales (QoQ)                               1.1%                      2.4%     

 21:45    NZD       Retail Sales (QoQ)                                           1.3%                      2.2%       

These reports are released together monthy measures the change of the Retail Sales in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level in New Zealand, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for New Zealand’s economy. This report might push the NZD up, especially against a weakened dollar.. (Watch this one closely. It might be a good trade. Below forecast sell NZD immediately, above Buy NZD immediately )      

23:30     AUD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment                                                                 2.40%

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.

Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of  the Asian session )

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8344

The NZD was showed little movement  against the greenback and the euro after a vote by Greek politicians on austerity measures needed to win a second international bailout package.

The kiwi, is floating along with the its counterpart. The kicker today might be economic data in New Zealand on retail sales, watch this closely. Also keep an eye on data from the US.

Otherwise as it has been for weeks listen careful for news and rumor on Greece, now that a small step is completed, Greece still faces many obstacles. Final approval from the creditors and then from the EU and Germany is bound to throw some twists into the mix. This pair will move on the strenght or weakness of the USD. Last week we saw a drop in the NZD unemployment, which gave the kiwi some positive moves, which were too quickly offset by news from Greece, a bit of good economic news in this week, could give the kiwi the necessary push.

Last weeks major economic reports actual v. forecast.

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17

Feb 14  09:30  Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14  09:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Greece  3M T-bill auction

Feb 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 14  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Feb 15  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 15  10:30  Portugal  Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills

Feb 16  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Feb 16  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16  10:50  France  BTA/OATi auction

Feb 16  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y TIPS